For 20 years, welfare reform has been the Mount Everest of American domestic policy. Politicians have tried to climb it because it was there. The history of these ascents has been controversial. The proposals have been mostly comprehensive grand designs, made in Washington. One's position has been a test of one's ideology.
As a former participant, I now believe these earlier efforts to establish a negative income tax or guaranteed income system were the wrong approach to welfare reform. But in the past five years, there has been a subtle and little-noticed shift toward an alternative. A new consensus is emerging, emphasizing jobs and with state governments in the driver's seat.
In over two-thirds of the states, there is activity under the heading of "workfare," which I believe may turn out to be the real welfare reform. In this process, the meaning of the word "workfare" is subtly changing. In the 1970s, workfare was anathema to liberals who often damned it as "slavefare." The meaning of the term in this period was narrower than it is now. It referred to the single approach that people on welfare should "work off" their benefits. They should engage in public service jobs (often condemned as "make work") for an amount of time equal to some wage rate (such as the minimum wage) divided by their entitlement to welfare assistance.
Historically, this has been the approach to welfare for adult men without families under state and county assistance programs. In 1971, the federal law was amended to require that a woman in the then fast-growing Aid to Families with Dependent Children program register for work and accept a "suitable" job if one is available and if her youngest child is over 6 years f age. This requirement does not say that states and counties have to set up jobs -- only that if a suitable job is available (along with child care) an AFDC family head is required to accept it.
Ten years later, Ronald Reagan tried to move even further in this direction. He proposed that states be required to provide jobs to all AFDC family heads, again with children over 6 years of age and where child care is available. Although Reagan succeeded in 1981 in obtaining passage of fundamental welfare changes removing many working poor families from the AFDC roles, he was not successful in winning enactment of universal and compulsory work as a condition of the receipt of AFDC benefits. Congress instead said that the states could test the approach along with other employment approaches to welfare reform.
The important new activity being undertaken by over two-thirds of the states involves tests under this new authority, although on a broadened basis that also includes job preparation and job search activities. The states are using a variety of approaches; they can be arrayed on a continuum according to the degree and character of the obligations imposed under these new state systems.
The welfare reform programs of Michael Dukakis, governor of Massachusetts, and George Deukmejian, governor of California, bear particularly close watching. The Massachusetts program called "ET Choices" is the most liberal test of employment approaches to welfare reform. (ET stands for employment and training.) The emphasis in Massachusetts is on job preparation and placement services, not on compulsory work experience. This approach can be contrasted with that of states such as Utah and West Virginia that have a strong tradition of mandatory community work experience for welfare family heads.
California's program stands out as the most ambitious new state welfare reform in the nation. In 1985, the state enacted legislation to provide "Greater Avenues to Independence" -- abbreviated, of course, as GAIN -- for all qualifying welfare family heads. Under this program, all counties in California are to set up new systems to provide a range of services -- training, education, job counseling and job placement. Eligible welfare recipients are required to participate in one or another of these services. If the services are not successful in getting an eligible AFDC family head into the work force, they are followed by six months or one year of "relevant" community work experience in a presumably useful (not "make work") public service job. It is estimated that California will spend as much as $300 million per year on this program, not counting the expected welfare savings, when GAIN is fully implemented. This is more than the federal government spent in 1985 for the nation as a whole on welfare employment and training programs under its work incentive (or WIN) program.
It is not yet clear what will happen under the California or other new state welfare reform programs in the turbulent environment of Gramm- Rudman-Hollings. This quiet state-focused revolution is, in effect, an attempt to change welfare as an institution and, in the process, to reduce the stigma of welfare both for recipients and for the society. But such change does not come easily.
The Manpower Demonstration Research Corporation, based in New York City, has conducted eight state demonstration research projects on variations of the work and welfare approach in which more than 35,000 people have been assigned either to a new program or a comparison group. The results of these demonstrations so far, including one in San Diego that was a model for the California GAIN program, have been promising. However, the earnings and work increases achieved are not all that large, and furthermore there is variation among the states in these terms. One clear lesson from these state experiments is that it is bound to take time to deal with the accumulation of generations of the terrible problem of very high rates of single-parent families among the poor.
But there is new hope. The states are serving as testing grounds for welfare reform on a basis that involves a delicate balancing act by liberals and conservatives. Job-focused institutional changes to reduce the stigma of welfare are the essence of the new approach. It is too early to draw conclusions about its efficacy. But it certainly bears close watching: it could be the real welfare reform.