MOSCOW, SEPT. 17 (THURSDAY) -- Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev said today that a U.S.-Soviet treaty eliminating medium- and shorter-range missiles should be achieved by the end of this year and could lead to another accord with the Reagan administration in early 1988 to reduce strategic weapons.

Gorbachev also used an article published today in the Communist Party newspaper Pravda and the government newspaper Izvestia to propose a United Nations commission to monitor compliance with nuclear arms control agreements and to lessen military tension.

The article, billed as a major Soviet statement on global security as the U.N. General Assembly opened its 42nd session this week, coincided with the second day of talks in Washington between U.S. Secretary of State George P. Shultz and Soviet Foreign Minister Eduard Shevardnadze.

{U.S. officials said the discussions have "cleared away some significant obstacles" toward final agreement on banning medium- and shorter-range missiles. Shultz and Shevardnadze are expected to complete the current round of talks Thursday. Details on Page A34.}

Gorbachev suggested that West German Chancellor Helmut Kohl's decision last month to forgo modernizing Bonn's 72 short-range Pershing IA missiles had improved the chances for a U.S.-Soviet treaty. "The government of the Federal Republic of Germany assumed a stand which is conducive to a certain extent" to reaching an agreement, Gorbachev said.

In addressing the questions of verification and the West German Pershings, Gorbachev focused on the two issues Moscow has listed as key obstacles to the arms treaty under negotiation and indicated that both are resolvable.

By timing the release of his remarks on the final day of talks between Shultz and Shevardnadze, Gorbachev appeared to suggest that any details the two men could not resolve could be worked out later.

"The Soviet Union is proceeding from the premise that a relevant treaty could be worked out before the end of the current year," Gorbachev said.

In the most positive Kremlin assessment of the prospects for an accord to reduce strategic weapons, Gorbachev said, "This treaty on medium- and shorter-range missiles would be a fine prelude to a breakthrough at the talks on large-scale -- 50 percent -- reductions in strategic offensive arms in conditions of the strict observance of the Anti-Ballistic Missile treaty.

"An accord on that matter could become a reality as early as the first half of next year," he added.

Previously, Soviet officials had said that the Reagan administration's insistence on proceeding with space-weapons research damaged prospects for a strategic accord.

Gorbachev's statement today reflected some of the optimism heard recently from Reagan administration officials on chances for a strategic weapons deal. Max Kampelman, the chief U.S. negotiator at the Geneva arms talks, recently said there was good cause to believe progress could be achieved on reducing strategic arms following the conclusion of a treaty to eliminate medium- and shorter-range missiles.

In an apparent attempt to allay concerns on both sides about the verification of such a "double zero" arms treaty and other agreements, Gorbachev said that "it could be possible to set up under the aegis of the United Nations a mechanism for extensive international verification of compliance with accords to lessen international tension, limit armaments and monitor the military situation in conflict areas."

According to a Soviet study, both sides' nuclear arsenals could be reduced by 95 percent without disrupting security, Gorbachev said, adding, "We believe that the 5 percent should not be retained either."

Gorbachev's article, his first major appearance in nearly three weeks, was prompted by this week's opening of the General As-"It is more correct to say that a world war has been averted despite the existence of nuclear weapons."

-- Mikhail Gorbachev

sembly, the Kremlin leader said.

Among the other wide-ranging proposals he made were: A multilateral center for reducing the risk of war, with the U.N. headquarters to be linked with offices in the capitals of the Security Council members. (Shultz and Shevardnadze have signed an agreement for risk-reduction centers in Washington and Moscow.) More use of U.N. peace-keeping forces in cease-fire observation and troop disengagement. U.N. cooperation in combating international terrorism.

Gorbachev also used the article to respond to President Reagan's challenge in a recent speech to reveal the Soviet defense budget, which has never been publicized. A comparison of the levels of defense spending by the United States and the Soviet Union should be possible in two to three years, he said.

But he also dismissed the views on maintaining security popularly held in the West as "outdated." He called the concept of nuclear deterrence "the road to an abyss."

Instead, he said, "it seems that it is more correct to say that a world war has been averted despite the existence of nuclear weapons."