Kerry will win here, as will Sen. Christopher J. Dodd (D), who is seeking a fifth term. The state has two sharply contested House races in which moderate Republicans are battling for reelection. Two-term Rep. Rob Simmons (R) is in a tossup match against former Norwich councilman Jim Sullivan (D). Eight-term Rep. Christopher Shays (R), known for pushing campaign finance reform, faces a challenge from Diane Farrell (D). Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.) has campaigned for Farrell, and Democrats say an upset is possible.
Kerry leads Bush, but the president could pick up one electoral vote if he carries the 2nd Congressional District, where he is given a chance. Kerry's running mate, Sen. John Edwards (D-N.C.), made an eleventh-hour visit to Bangor in hopes of averting that. Maine is one of two states that do not award all their electoral votes to the statewide winner. There are no races for senator or governor.
Kerry will sweep his home state. If he wins the presidency, Massachusetts will hold a special election next year to fill his Senate seat. The state's 10 House members, all Democrats, should easily win.
New York (31)
The Empire State is safe for Kerry. Sen. Charles E. Schumer (D), whose fundraising has scared off serious competition, will win a second term. The closest contest is for the seats being vacated by GOP Reps. Amo Houghton and Jack Quinn. Democrats are especially hopeful in Quinn's district, where Assemblyman Brian Higgins (D) is in a tossup race against Comptroller Nancy Naples (R). In Houghton's district, state Sen. John Kuhl Jr. (R) is thought to have the edge over Samara Barend (D). Democrats say first-term Rep. Tim Bishop (D) will best a strong challenge from William Manger Jr. (R).
Rhode Island (4)
It has been a quiet election, and that's unlikely to change. Kerry and the two Democratic House members should win.
No chance for Bush here. Gov. Jim Douglas (R) appears likely to win a second two-year term by holding off Burlington Mayor Peter Clavelle (D). Sen. Patrick J. Leahy (D) will win a sixth six-year term.