NEW YORK, JUNE 16 -- At their current pace, the Baltimore Orioles pitching staff will allow 787 runs, 224 homers and 298 doubles this season.

The staff will walk 620 batters and produce 10 complete-game victories. The starters will average 5.5 innings per start, roll up a 5.04 earned run average and win just 41 games. Mike Boddicker and Dave Schmidt will get 31 of those victories.

The relievers already have blown 10 leads in the seventh inning or later and are on a pace to give back 25 victories, the difference between finishing 81-81 and 56-106, between finishing closer to first place than to last.

The result of all this could be the second 100-loss season for the 34-year-old franchise.

The numbers add up and up and up. The starters have been terrible, and the relievers have been . . . terrible.

The Orioles, 64 games into the season, have made 10 changes in the starting rotation. Ken Dixon was dropped, then brought back; Jeff Ballard was brought up from Rochester and sent back; John Habyan was brought up from Rochester and sent to the bullpen, etc.

The lone exclusive starter has been Boddicker (5-3, 2.86 ERA). More important, the Orioles are 10-4 in his starts, 18-31 when anyone else pitches.

"When the pitching is like that, it gets discouraging after a while," center fielder Fred Lynn said. "You're putting a lot of pressure on the offense. You get to the point where each guy is trying to do too much."

This afternoon, a day after Eric Bell was shelled for a fourth straight start, Orioles Manager Cal Ripken Sr. sat in his office at Yankee Stadium and searched for answers.

He left no doubt Habyan and Bell probably should go to Rochester for work, but said, "They're two of the 10 best pitchers we have right now. If we had anyone else, we'd try 'em. I just can't make any more changes. I can't take all the starters and put 'em in the bullpen and turn all the relievers into starters. When you have young pitchers, you've got to have patience."

But his patience is being tested. In an organization that once produced first-class pitchers with stunning regularity, club officials now have cause to wonder: Is the scouting process at fault? Or is it the farm system?

The Orioles' baseball operation has been bled the last decade, with Joe McIlvane going to the New York Mets, Ray Poitevint to the Milwaukee Brewers and Larry Himes to the California Angels, then the Chicago White Sox.

For now, Ripken must work with what he has. His latest idea is to put the rookies in low-risk jobs. He has only one rookie, Bell, in the starting rotation with Boddicker, Schmidt, Dixon and Scott McGregor. He'll use Luis DeLeon and Tom Niedenfuer as closers and rookies Habyan, Mark Williamson and Tony Arnold as middle relievers.

"You would think they'll be used in games when we're behind," Ripken said. "In those situations, there should be less pressure."Mounds of Letdowns

In order of disappointments, Dixon (3-6, 6.71 ERA before tonight's game) probably would rank first. In spring training, General Manager Hank Peters called him "the key to the season," but after only four starts, he was moved to the bullpen with a 1-2 record and 8.53 ERA.

Lately, he has been working on a forkball, but it will be at least weeks before he is ready to bring it into a game.

Bell also has disappointed. He had won 28 minor league games the previous two seasons, and club officials considered him polished enough and ready for the big leagues.

"We've been working with him on some mechanical things like keeping focused on the glove," Ripken said. "He did fine {Monday night} until the first man reached base. When that happened, he went completely haywire. It was like he forgot how to pitch. But we're going to keep working and keep concentrating. This organization has never had this many kids, and it's going to take some time. When a guy moves up a league, he has adjustments to make, and these guys aren't making them yet."

Bell agrees, sort of.

"If I were just going to the mound with nothing on my pitches, I'd at least know why I'm losing," Bell said. "But I'm going out there with pretty good stuff. It seems like I'm releasing one ball at the right point and two at the wrong point. I threw one pitch, and as soon as it left my hand, I wanted to reach out and try to get it back. What hurts is that I know I belong here and can pitch here."

He said he has worried so much about mechanics and thought processes that veteran Mike Flanagan told him the other night: "Try a little easier."

The plan now is for him to work on mechanics in the bullpen. The Orioles believe he'll be fine eventually.

They're not so sure about McGregor or Habyan, but they may not have anyone to replace them in the next couple of years.

"The kids here are in a rough situation, yet at the same time it's an ideal situation," Ripken said. "They think they're ready to pitch in the big leagues, but there are some things they have to start doing. They haven't shown me they can do it yet."Flanagan's Stock Rises

Oddly enough, when Flanagan went on the disabled list on May 17, there was a strong feeling he'd never return, that kids like Ballard and Habyan would take his place and pump new life into the Orioles.

Now, Flanagan is once more a valued player, and club officials eagerly await his return within the next month.

"Well, his stock always was pretty high with me," Ripken Sr. said. "But, yeah, I guess we'll all be glad to see him back out there."

The biggest blow probably was the injury to Don Aase. Despite the starters' problems, Aase might have saved the season. A year ago at this time, he had 18 saves -- 16 more than he has now.

"You look at the best teams," Peters said, "and they all have a stopper. Toronto has Tom Henke, Milwaukee has Dan Plesac and the Yankees have Dave Righetti. You take any of those guys away, and where do you think those guys would be? You can't play these games without a stopper, and that's what we've been trying to do. You give us back some of those games the bullpen has blown, and people are saying, 'Hey, you guys aren't too bad.' "