There are several industry award ceremonies scheduled in the five-week period between the Golden Globes and Oscars, among them the SAGs and the Producers Guild Awards, held Saturday. Those two in particular — perhaps paired with the British Academy Film Awards — are major predictors of how things will shake out, given the overlap in voting bodies as well as their general influence.
Ahead of the official Oscar voting period, which begins Jan. 30 and lasts five days, here’s a closer look at how some of the nominees’ chances have shifted since we last evaluated the contenders.
It’s not a coincidence the academy wound up nominating nine of the 10 films vying for the top motion-picture prize at the PGAs. As presenters Issa Rae and John Cho emphasized, Oscar nominations are determined by members of the respective branches; since the Oscar for best picture goes to the producers, the PGAs are often indicative of what’s to come. Triumphing at the PGAs was therefore a good omen for Sam Mendes’s one-shot World War I epic “1917,” which also won best drama at the Globes.
When it comes time to vote for the Oscar winners, however, the entire academy gets to weigh in on all categories — meaning that many of the actors who voted for “Parasite” at the SAGs could rally behind the thriller for best picture at the Academy Awards. (It’s also nominated in the newly renamed international feature category, in which it is a front-runner.) But Quentin Tarantino’s “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood” still has a higher likelihood of winning than “Parasite.” The Leonardo DiCaprio-Pitt vehicle won best comedy at the Globes and has earned multiple nods — in the acting, writing, directing and/or technical categories — at most award shows.
Best actors and actresses, lead and supporting
The academy might as well carve Joaquin Phoenix’s name onto the best-actor statuette right now — he has consistently won awards for playing the title character in Todd Phillips’s “Joker” origin film. If — or rather, when — he wins, Phoenix would follow in the footsteps of Heath Ledger, who won a posthumous Oscar in 2009 for his turn as the Batman villain in Christopher Nolan’s “The Dark Knight.” Joining Phoenix is Renée Zellweger, who could fill a shelf with all the trophies she has taken home for her portrayal of beloved yet troubled golden-era star Judy Garland in Rupert Goold’s “Judy.”
Adam Driver, at one point thought to be competitive with his lead performance in Noah Baumbach’s divorce drama “Marriage Story,” has fallen behind. Driver’s co-lead, Scarlett Johansson, also nominated in the supporting category for “Jojo Rabbit,” and Charlize Theron, who plays former Fox News anchor Megyn Kelly in Jay Roach’s “Bombshell,” don’t seem to stand much of a chance, either.
The supporting-actor categories seem to be set in stone, too. Pitt has won so many awards for playing cool-guy stuntman Cliff Booth in “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood” that he has essentially started using his acceptance speeches as a way to jump-start a career in stand-up. (His most memorable joke from the SAGs poked fun at Tarantino’s possible foot fetish: “Quentin Tarantino has separated more women from their shoes than the TSA.”) Laura Dern, who has gone home with many a trophy for playing a hardball divorce lawyer in “Marriage Story,” is also likely to win again.
Best film editing
Though they aren’t as closely monitored by those outside the industry, the American Cinema Editors’ Eddie Awards also made history this past weekend by awarding the top prize to “Parasite” editor Jimmo Yang, making it the first foreign-language film to ever win the Eddie for best-edited drama. (Tom Eagles won for best-edited comedy for “Jojo Rabbit,” though his Oscar chances are low.)
This is a notable development for “Parasite,” though “Irishman” editor Thelma Schoonmaker, a longtime Martin Scorsese collaborator, or Michael McCusker and Andrew Buckland, who worked on James Mangold’s auto drama “Ford v Ferrari,” seem more likely to win.
Best animated feature
Another big winner at the PGAs was the bittersweet “Toy Story 4,” which also won the Critics’ Choice Award but lost to fellow Oscar nominee “Missing Link” at the Globes. Woody and Buzz are likely to triumph at the Oscars, though there’s room for speculation given the critical acclaim of the existential French film “I Lost My Body” and “How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World,” which concluded the franchise.