This isn’t really a shock. Back in late September, Sabato predicted that the president would “probably win” in large part because the economy just wasn’t all that bad. That howler reappears in his latest note:
Adding to the president’s good fortune was a final jobs report that was basically helpful because it wasn’t disastrously bad — that is, the unemployment rate failed to jump back above the psychologically damaging level of 8%. Romney could have used that number to build a crescendo for change. Instead, the final potential obstacle to Obama’s reelection passed by as a one-day story.
The “psychologically damaging” number Team Sabato ignores was covered here by Brian Kirwin. Note to the Professor: The last report showed a rise in unemployment. The rate stands at 7.9 percent. It was 7.8 when Mr. Obama took office.
But putting all that aside, the Sabato scribes do find a mild bit of tarnish on the trophy they intend to award the President:
[Continue reading Norman Leahy’s post at Bearing Drift.]
Norman Leahy blogs at Bearing Drift. The Local Blog Network is a group of bloggers from around the D.C. region who have agreed to make regular contributions to All Opinions Are Local.