New polling on a government shutdown:
• Forty-two percent would blame President Obama or the Democrats in Congress and 37 percent the Republicans in Congress in the event of a shutdown reports a new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll. But most (76 percent) said an agreement would be reached, according the poll that ended April 4. Democrats and independents prefer a compromise on the budget by 71 to 23 percent. Republicans would rather their party leaders “stick to their positions” by 56 to 38 percent.
• A Gallup poll finds similar results on the compromise question; over six in 10 Democrats and independents prefer a compromise budget plan, but a bare majority of Republicans want their representatives to “hold out for the basic budget plan they want, even if it means the government shuts down.” By a seven-point margin, more people in the one-night poll (April 5) see Obama and the Democrats doing a better job than Republicans in the current negotiations, by 41 to 34 percent.
• The public splits 45 to 42 percent between trusting Obama or the Republicans in making the right cuts in government spending “to make a difference in the budget deficit” in a new Fox News poll. That closely tracks a Washington Post-ABC News poll from mid-March which found 43 percent trusting Obama and 42 percent the Republicans on balacing cuts and keeping necessary spending. Also in the Fox poll, by 62 to 26 percent people would vote to not raise the debt limit and cause a shutdown if they were in Congress.
• “Blame” for a shutdown may not be the right frame of reference. According to March polling from the Washington Post and ABC News, as reported by Gary Langer, 31 percent would consider a shutdown a “good thing,” rising to 55 percent among tea party supporters.
2012 and Obama:
• NBC/WSJ on GOP 2012 – Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee and Donald Trump top the field among potential Republican primary voters nationally.
• Quinnipiac Florida poll – Tough going for Obama among Florida registered voters; less than majority approval, a tight race against a generic GOP candidate and a slim majority says he doesn’t deserve re-election.
• Gallup on Obama approval – In combined daily tracking for March, Obama’s job approval among African America’s moves to 85 percent, a new low. Among Hispanics, 54 percent approve, matching his low, and he holds steady among whites at 39 percent. Approval ratings from Pew and NBC/WSJ finds Obama at 92 and 88 percent each among African Americans.
Other new data:
• Fox News on Libya – 62 percent oppose the U.S. military “getting involved with the situation in Libya,” little changed from mid-March.
• Pew weekly news interest – Increasing numbers are hearing bad news about gas prices and prices for food and consumer goods. But there’s been a sharp drop in people hearing bad news about the job situation.
• Bloomberg’s Consumer Confort Index ticked up for the second straight week amid a positive jobs report.