The Washington Post

Announcing the 2011-2012 Washington, D.C. snowfall forecast winner

Only two people really foresaw the astonishing lack of snow. Topping the list: Bill Walker who forecast 2.1” would fall, within 0.1” of nailing the actual amount of 2.0”. Congratulations, Bill - that was an amazing call!

Kudos are also in order for the runner-up, Xinli Wang, who predicted 2.2”.

The third place forecaster, Stephen Brundange, called for 3.8” - 90 percent more than what fell - but superior to 670+ other predictions.

The top 15 best predictions are shown to the right above.

Snowfall predictions by category (amount range)

The average snowfall predicted by entrants was about 22.0” - some 20” above what actually fell. As we reported yesterday, we (the Capital Weather Gang) predicted a less than stellar 12” in our winter outlook.

Bar chart showing Capital Weather Gang’s probabilities for snow amounts at Reagan National Airport, versus the percentage of CWG readers who predicted amounts in those ranges.

At the end of the day, precious few people anticipated our nearly snowless winter - so major props to our select readers that did.

We really appreciate you participating in this forecasting game - and once again - congratulations to Bill Walker. We’ll do this again next year - so start sharpening up your long-range forecasting skills...

(If you want to know where you ranked, feel free to email weathergang AT wpni DOT com)

Related: Capital Weather Gang readers predict an average of 22” of snow this winter

Jason is the Washington Post’s weather editor and Capital Weather Gang's chief meteorologist. He earned a master's degree in atmospheric science, and spent 10 years as a climate change science analyst for the U.S. government. He holds the Digital Seal of Approval from the National Weather Association.


Success! Check your inbox for details. You might also like:

Please enter a valid email address

See all newsletters

Show Comments
Most Read


Success! Check your inbox for details.

See all newsletters

Your Three. Video curated for you.