NAM model radar simulation for 10 p.m. Thursday shows line of showers and storms pushing through the Washington, D.C. area (Twisterdata.com)

The most likely timing for any storms is during the evening, probably between 5-11 p.m. Some heavy downpours are a decent bet and a few storms may produce gusty to very gusty winds (at least 30 mph, and up to 60 mph at the high end). Severe weather is not likely, but a possibility given the overall set up.


Percent chance of severe weather within 25 miles of a point Thursday (NOAA)

Writes the National Weather Service: ANY SHOWER/STORM THAT DOES DEVELOP WOULD BE CAPABLE OF MIXING DOWN STRONGER WINDS ALOFT.

The Storm Prediction Center has placed the region under a slight risk of severe thunderstorms, indicating a 15 percent chance of severe weather within 25 miles of a point in our region.

Rainfall totals should average under 0.5”, but locally heavier amounts are possible.