The Washington Post

Cool snap coming into central and eastern U.S. next week?

GFS forecast temperatures compared to 1981-2010 average next week ( )

Both the European and GFS models suggest the jet stream will carve out a large trough over Midwest extending into the Ohio Valley around Tuesday of next week.

And the North Atlantic Oscillation is forecast to tank well into negative territory. When the NAO is negative, it is typically an indicator of a large dip in the jet stream over eastern North America and colder than average temperatures.

Most members of the GFS ensemble model forecast the North Atlantic Oscillation to dip into negative territory in mid-to-late September. (NOAA)

Often times these early season outbreaks of chilly air moderate as they head east and sometimes models overdo their intensity this many days out.

The GFS simulates more of the cold will make it east compared to the European model.

But a deeper taste of autumn may arrive in the mid-Atlantic in just over a week. It’s not out of the question highs are challenged to reach into the 70s with more widespread 40s at night in the D.C. metro region.

We’ll keep you posted.

Jason is the Washington Post’s weather editor and Capital Weather Gang's chief meteorologist. He earned a master's degree in atmospheric science, and spent 10 years as a climate change science analyst for the U.S. government. He holds the Digital Seal of Approval from the National Weather Association.


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