Distribution of predictions for 90+ days from Capital Weather Gang readers
This number is slightly lower than Capital Weather Gang’s prediction of 45-50. The range of submissions spanned 4 to 105. Since 1980, the most 90+ days to occur was 68 in 1980 and 2010, and least was 11 in 2004.
The above chart displays a histogram which gives a good general sense of the grouping of predictions.
Interestingly, reader forecasts had a tendency to fall into a range either just above (41 to 50) or below (21-30) the historical average number of 90+ days, rather than average itself - which is 36 (or between 31-40).
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Jason is the Washington Post’s weather editor and Capital Weather Gang's chief meteorologist. He earned a master's degree in atmospheric science, and spent 10 years as a climate change science analyst for the U.S. government. He holds the Digital Seal of Approval from the National Weather Association.