updated at 9 a.m. and 3:30 p.m., originally posted at 5 a.m.

3:30 p.m. update: A severe thunderstorm warning is in effect for Loudoun county, northern Fauquier county, and southern Frederick county until 4:15 p.m. A thunderstorm with torrential rain and potentially destructive winds to 70 mph is moving through the area.


Today: Partly sunny. 40-50% chance of p.m. storms. Low 80s. | Tonight: 50% chance of evening storms. Low-to-mid 60s. | Tomorrow: Increasing sun. Isolated shower/storm? Mid-80s. | A Look Ahead | Get Express Forecast by E-mail


Cooler weather finally appears to be in the rearview mirror, at least for the time being. A cold front stalls north of the area today, leaving us with highs around 80 or above well into the coming week. While we’ll be warm, the air will be fairly moist as well, enough so for times of clouds and at least the chance for a shower or thunderstorm each day or night through midweek.

Today (Sunday): Skies are likely to remain more gray than sunny for most of this Easter Sunday. But enough sun probably shines through to Partly sunny skies jump highs to the low 80s with a light breeze from the southwest. A stalled front to our north is close enough for the chance of an isolated shower through midday, and a 40-50% chance of strong to severe late-afternoon or evening thunderstorms. Confidence: Medium

Probability of thunder: 40-50%
Coverage: Isolated to Scattered
Most Likely Timing: 3-11 p.m.

Tonight: Thunderstorm chances are around 50% this evening, and again any storms could be strong to severe, before waning overnight. Skies attempt to slowly clear by morning, but I wouldn’t expect much issue with sun glare for your early-morning commute. Nighttime lows remain mild with the clouds and light winds from the south, in the low-to-mid 60s. Confidence: Medium

Keep reading for the forecast through midweek...

Tomorrow (Monday): Flow from the south deflects the lingering front a bit further north, but we still run a chance of an isolated shower or thunderstorm. Mostly cloudy skies early give way to increasing sun through the day. Highs crank up to the mid-80s with light winds from the south/southwest. Confidence: Medium

Tomorrow night: Partly to mostly cloudy skies and lows in the 60s are generally nice for a late-April night. Still, can’t rule out an isolated shower or storm. Confidence: Medium


Tuesday and Wednesday, warm flow from the south continues as the next cold front likely remains well back to our west. The result is partly to mostly sunny skies and highs near 80 to the mid-80s. The air could be just unstable enough for the chance of isolated or isolated to scattered late-afternoon or evening showers/t’storms. Tuesday night, we remain firmly entrenched in the warm air with lows in the mild 60s. Confidence: Low-Medium