updated at 7:45 a.m. (and at 10:40 a.m. to reflect some glimpses of sun) 1:50 p.m., 4 p.m. and 5:45 p.m.; originally posted at 5 a.m.

NatCast | Coastal Flood Advisory for Chesapeake Bay and tidal Potomac unitl 10 a.m. Monday

7:55 p.m. Update: Can’t rule out an isolated pop-up shower or storm, but should generally be a quiet evening with the main activity now moving east across the Chesapeake Bay.

5:45 p.m. Update: Line of storms now in western Fairfax and Montgomery counties and extending south will move through metro region over next 2-3 hours. These storms are not severe but will contain downpours and lightning. They also are moving rather slowly and new activity is developing to the southwest so a few spots may experience some heavy rainfall totals. We’ll keep you posted.

4:00 p.m. Update: No severe thunderstorm watch has been issued. Storms are moving towards the southwest suburbs, but slowly - and are still about an hour away from threatening the immediate metro region. Heavy rain and lightning are likely to be the main threat with this activity.

1:50 p.m. Update: The Storm Prediction Center is indicating a severe thunderstorm watch may be issued for the region due to the possibile development of storms with damaging winds and large hail. We should have a couple more hours of partial sunshine before storms get close. Keep an eye on radar and we’ll update if a severe thunderstorm watch is issued.

7:45 a.m. Update: After the rain overnight and early this morning, it does appear we’ll see that lull talked about below, with probably little more than an isolated shower (even some peeks of sun) into early afternoon, before shower and storm chances increase headed into mid-afternoon and later.

Today’s Daily Digit
 
A somewhat subjective rating of the
day’s weather, on a scale of 0 to 10.

 
Not much to brag about today with clouds & showers likely (t’storms?). At least we can hope for a midday lull.
 
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EXPRESS FORECAST

Today: Mostly cloudy with p.m. showers likely; t’storms? Low-to-mid 70s. | Tonight: Scattered showers, fog. Mid-50s to low 60s. | Tomorrow: Cloudy with a 50% chance of showers/storms. Upper 60s to mid-70s. | A Look Ahead | Get Express Forecast by E-mail

FORECAST IN DETAIL

I hope everyone got their fill of sunny and warm last week, because it sure doesn’t look like we’ll be enjoying much of the same for at least the next several days. Repeated waves of low pressure keep clouds and shower chances around for the foreseeable future. There are hints that we may salvage a nice day again by next weekend, so hang your hope there.

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Radar & lightning: Latest D.C. area radar shows movement of precipitation and lightning strikes over past two hours. Refresh page to update. Click here or on image to enlarge. Or see radar bigger on our Weather Wall.

Today (Sunday): The best chances for showers are early-to-mid morning (and if it’s not showering, could be drizzly/misty), and again in the mid-afternoon into evening when there could be a few boomers as well. An isolated storm could produce strong to severe winds and/or hail. The good news is that a reprieve is possible for some during the midday. Also, flow from the south (rather than yesterday’s onshore flow) means we should see less drizzle/mist than yesterday during any midday break. Highs should manage the low-to-mid 70s despite mostly cloudy skies. Confidence: Medium

Probability of storms: 50%
Coverage: Isolated to Scattered
Most Likely Timing: Late afternoon to mid-evening

Tonight: Showers and a lingering t’storm or two are still in the forecast, though coverage and intensity should be less as we move into the night. Some fog or mist could take over where the showers leave off. Otherwise, we’ll deal with a low overcast and lows in the mid-50s to low 60s. Confidence: Medium

Keep reading for the forecast through the midweek...

Tomorrow (Monday): Unsettled weather stays with us as low pressure lingers, keeping skies mostly cloudy or overcast with a 50% chance of occasional showers and maybe an afternoon thunderstorm. Best bet for highs is upper 60s to low 70s, though mid-70s could be within reach if we get anything of a breeze from the south as one model suggests. Confidence: Medium

Tomorrow night: Shower and storm chances remain around 50%, and where it’s not actively raining, fog is likely. Skies are plenty cloudy and lows are sticky, in the upper 50s to low 60s. Confidence: Low-Medium

A LOOK AHEAD

I wish I had something different to report as we move later into the week, but I don’t. Wave after wave of weak low pressure affects our area, and if anything shower/thunderstorm chances increase a bit for Tuesday and Wednesday, to at least around 60%. High temperatures continue to hover around that upper 60s to mid-70s range. Confidence: Low-Medium