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If you haven’t already, don’t forget to turn your clocks ahead so you can enjoy an extra hour of evening daylight today and what should be a very nice sunset. Partly to mostly sunny skies today set the tone for the start of the work week as high pressure holds off a weak disturbance to our south. The trade-off is cooler, but not cold air moving in tomorrow before the southern system gets close enough for a chance of showers Monday night into Wednesday.
Today (Sunday): Some cloudiness may flutter through now and again, but all in all we have another rather pleasant spring day on tap. Partly to mostly sunny skies warm the soul as you’re out and about today. Winds from the west/northwest breeze to around 15 mph at times, adding only a slight chill to pretty comfortable highs in the mid-50s to near 60. Not too shabby. Confidence: Medium-High
Tonight: Skies are partly cloudy at times, but I suspect we’ll see more stars than clouds. Mainly light breezes from the north/northwest lead temperatures to drop rather quickly after sunset, to lows mostly in the low-to-mid 30s. Some outlying areas could touch the upper 20s. Confidence: High
Keep reading for the forecast through midweek...
Tomorrow (Monday): A weak disturbance looks to stay far enough south to keep any showers south of around Fredericksburg. Clouds, however, may be more of an issue. It’s hard to say whether we’ll be far enough north of the system for at least partly sunny skies, or whether mostly cloudy conditions make it in here. Highs are at least several degrees cooler than today, probably near 50 to the low 50s with light winds. Confidence: Medium
Tomorrow night: Precipitation lurking to the south could get close enough for a chance of sprinkles or light showers - odds of anything are about 30-40% as of now - as lows settle in the 30s. Although not neccesarily likely, a few snowflakes wouldn’t be out of the question. Even so, the chance of accumulation would be remote. Confidence: Medium
High pressure to our north and low pressure to our south battle for control on Tuesday. The read right now is that upper-level energy associated with the system to the south remains far enough south to allow us more sun than clouds, only a slight chance of showers and highs climbing into the 50s, but that’s not a done deal. Confidence: Low-Medium
As we head into Tuesday evening, though, low pressure finally starts to win out. And while there’s still time for the forecast to fluctuate, models are in fair agreement for mostly cloudy skies and an increasing chance of rain Tuesday night into Wednesday, as the southern system finally slides up the East Coast. Fortunately, rainfall potential looks to be a good bit less than the past couple of soakers. Tuesday night lows range through the 40s with Wednesday highs reaching the 50s to near 60. Confidence: Low-Medium