Late day showers/storms possible
Originally posted at 5 a.m., updated at 10 p.m.
10 p.m. update: A line of showers and storms, currently moving through Loudoun and Frederick counties will swing through northern Fairfax, Montgomery, and Howard counties in the next hour, possibly clipping northern Anne Arundel county between 11-11:30 p.m. Downpours, gusty winds to 30-40 mph, and lightning are possible with these storms but they should gradually weaken as they head east.
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Today: Mostly cloudy. Morning showers, afternoon storm? Upper 60s to lower 70s.| Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Near 60 to mid-60s. | Tomorrow: Variable clouds. T’storm? Near 80 to low 80s. | A Look Ahead | Get Express Forecast by E-mail
With yesterday’s cold (10 degrees below normal, 18 below on the high!) about to be a memory, we look to warmer times. Prior to Friday, we were running 1.5 degrees above normal on the month, even though it has seemed kind of chilled to many. One reason we’re running mild? The well above average days intermixed. We’ve got a couple of those coming up. Before that, we’re still dodging a stalled out boundary that wants to keep clouds and intermittent rain drops in the mix for a while longer.
Today (Saturday): The more widespread shower activity should wind down during the morning. But, showers and potentially a t’storm continue to be a slight threat (30%) into the midday and afternoon as a weak cold front approaches. Though, after noon-2 p.m. some more in the way of sun, or at least thinner clouds, should be apparent. As a high pressure off the southeast becomes better established, warmer and muggier air should arrive, sending highs to at least the upper 60s, and maybe toward the mid-70s south of town. Confidence: Medium
Tonight: There may be a few breaks here and there through the night, but more clouds look to float by as well. Winds from the south and southwest usher in more summerlike air as dew points rise to near 60. This, and the clouds, help keep lows in the mild near 60 to mid-60s range. We may need to watch for late-night showers or storms (20%), but they’ll want to diminish while headed through the mountains. Confidence: Medium
When do we see the warmth really crank up? How long’s it around for? Keep on reading...
Tomorrow (Sunday): It seems quite likely we get into solid warm air. How much sun we see is another question. The southeast ridge continues to flex its muscle, but we’re still near enough to the edge that we have clouds, showers, and t'storms nearby. If nothing else, we probably don’t see a ton of sun, and we’ll have to watch for a shower or storm threat (40-50% chance) during the afternoon as well. Highs should near 80, perhaps up to the low 80s if enough sunshine works its way in. Confidence: Medium
Tomorrow night: We’re still influenced by quite a few clouds, though as the southerly flow increases they may eventually trend north -- keep in mind clouds tend to hang out at night this time of year when present. Lows are again near 60 to the mid-60s. Confidence: Medium
A storm cranking up in the Plains and Midwest aids the ridge off the southeast in pumping warm air north on Monday. It should end up partly sunny or better as the area of cloudiness lifts further north. For some, this might be another “too warm, too soon” day. Highs head for the mid-to-upper 80s. Humidity is up too -- dew points near the mid-60s. Confidence: Medium-High
On Tuesday the high pressure off the coast starts to slide east and loosen its grip a bit as the central U.S. system moves northeast into Canada. We’re still quite toasty, but maybe a little less so than Monday as highs reach the mid-80s or so. Can’t rule out a late day shower or storm (20%), but most of the energy from the first wave looks to head well north of us, which means we’ll probably be hard pressed to break through some mild air aloft. Confidence: Medium
During the midweek we’ll still be warm and also watching another and probably larger system coming through the country. This one may bring a threat of strong to severe t’storms to this area by Thursday. Confidence: Low-Medium