Possible timing for snow: Friday afternoon and evening
Chance of at least one inch accumulation: 50 percent
Although amounts may be modest, the timing of the snow coinciding with the Friday evening rush hour makes this event worth paying attention to. Temperatures will be plenty cold for snow to stick - in the 20s.
The problem for snow lovers hoping for substantial amounts is that the storm is coming from the west and doesn’t have much moisture to work with. As it crosses the mountains, models are pretty consistent in reducing the intensity of the snowfall.
In light of the possible “snow hole” eventuality, Wes Junker, Capital Weather Gang winter weather expert, gives the following most likely scenarios for this snow event :
The heaviest (3 to 6 inches) of the three scenarios mentioned yesterday now appears off the table.
Two possible scenarios remain for Friday’s storm:
Our favored 1-3 inch scenario from yesterday still is on the table though amounts may be more towards the 1-2 inch range than 3. (50 percent chance)
The other scenario is for D.C. to get caught firmly in a snow hole as the westerly flow and down-sloping on the east side of the mountains limits precipitation and we quickly dry slot resulting in snowfall amounts less than 1 inch (50 percent chance).
Tomorrow, we’ll update these thoughts and include a snowfall accumulation forecast map.