Our forecast performance for this past weekend was clearly better than last weekend, when CWG readers graded us a ‘C’ in our first installment of “Grade our weekend forecast.” But was it good enough to help you plan your weekend appropriately?
Let’s review our forecasts leading up to and through this past weekend (and try not to let this morning’s “surprise” rain showers influence your voting)...
On Monday we wrote:
The weekend doesn’t look terribly promising. Showers are likely Saturday, with highs in the 60s. The rain should cut off by Saturday night into Sunday, but it’s chilly with ... highs only in the 50s.
Keep reading for a full review of our forecast for this past weekend, and your chance to grade us...
On Tuesday we wrote:
In all honesty, the weekend looks wretched. Perhaps the forecast will improve as we get closer, but at this point, Saturday looks rainy and cool with highs only in the cool 50s. More showers Saturday night ... with variable clouds on Sunday with 50s to possibly low 60s. I’m somewhat hopeful that we’ll get some sunshine sneaking into the picture at least by Sunday afternoon. Confidence: Low-Medium
On Wednesday we wrote
Saturday doesn’t look like a winner: Partly to mostly cloudy, quite breezy, showers likely, thunderstorms possible, and highs in the mid-50s to low 60s. Shower and storm chances continue Saturday night, but I do think we dry out nicely for Sunday.
Problem is clouds probably stick around for at least part of the day with highs only in the mid-50s to low 60s. Clouds may stick around for at least part of the day but highs should reach the 60s. Confidence: Low-Medium (strikeout and following sentence added during late-morning forecast update)
On Thursday we wrote:
Saturday is going to feel pretty raw with occasional showers being whipped around by winds from the east at 10-20 mph, gusting to 30+. Temperatures are not going to make this any better as they are stalled in the 50s all day. An isolated thundershower is possible by afternoon, but severe potential is low. Rain chances are nearly 100%. The real cold front and heavy rains arrive late afternoon and early evening ... Confidence: Medium
Sunday has considerable improvement in store for us as skies quickly clear and winds from the west are generally light ... Highs are likely to top out in the low-to-mid 60s. ... Confidence: Medium
On Friday we wrote:
Tomorrow (Saturday): Looks... not so good .... We may hit 60 if we are lucky--but probably only briefly, with much of the day in the 50s. Rain could be incessant during the midday or afternoon as isolated thundershowers become possible ... severe storms might end up somewhat muted, though they’re still a risk (especially south). But, east and southeast winds around 15-25 mph may gust to 30+ ... Confidence: Low-Medium
Tomorrow night: The cold front may be still working its way through the area during the evening, thus keeping chances for a thunderstorm and heavy showers in our cards. ... Confidence: Low-Medium
Sunday: ...Skies clear during the morning, making way for mostly sunny conditions by afternoon. High temperatures thaw us out, in the mid-60s. We could bump this up a little bit, but it depends on how much and for how long we have warming sunshine. ...Confidence: Medium-High
On Friday afternoon we wrote:
Tomorrow (Saturday): Showers are a near certainty tomorrow. They might be light and intermittent through morning into afternoon as overcast skies limit highs to near 60 or the low 60s, with the best chance of heavy rain and thunderstorms (see below for severe potential) during the late afternoon or evening. Winds from the east/southeast at 15-30 mph may gust near 35-40 mph in the afternoon.
While the system should lose some of its punch as it moves into cooler and more stable air east of the Appalachians, we’ll still need to watch for the chance of a severe thunderstorm or two with damaging winds late tomorrow afternoon or evening, especially south of D.C.
On Saturday we wrote:
Today (Saturday): A cold front and low pressure moving along it keep us with the risk of showers all day. Early activity may be hit-or-miss at times, but as the system gets closer, the odds for more concentrated activity grows. Along with the threat of heavy rain during the afternoon and evening, some severe weather is possible ... Anything that goes severe could bring damaging winds or even spawn a tornado, though the highest risk for such is south of us. Winds from the southeast and south pick up during the day, up to about 20-25 mph sustained late, with gusts near 40 mph. We should get at least a short period of temperatures well into the 60s ... Confidence: Medium
Tonight: Showers and thunderstorms (some of which could still be severe in the evening) continue before everything translates east by late evening, probably before midnight ... Confidence: Medium
Tomorrow (Sunday): The wind could be a bother to a few folks ... we might be gusting near 30 mph from the west during the day. Still, highs in the mid-and-upper 60s with plenty of sun should be pretty sweet. Confidence: Medium-High
On Sunday we wrote:
Today (Sunday): Skies turn to mostly sunny through the day and highs climb up to the mid-to-upper 60s. The only detraction is a pesky and potent wind from the west, sustained near 20 mph at times with occasional gusts over 30 mph. Confidence: High
What really happened?
Saturday was rainy in the morning with strong to severe storms in the afternoon and evening, including tornadoes reported to the north in Frederick and Carroll counties and around Leesburg (and well to the south as part of the historic and deadly tornado outbreak in southern Va., North Carolina and South Carolina). Damage in the D.C. area was mostly limited to downed trees. Saturday afternoon wind gusts were generally to near 40 mph and highs reached the low 60s.
Sunday was mostly sunny and windy with gusts near 30 mph and highs in the mid-to-upper 60s (67 @ DCA, 69 @ IAD, 66 @ BWI).