If this winter was a game, snow lovers would face a huge deficit heading into the final quarter. Let’s say attaining the average snowfall (15.4 inches) in Washington, D.C. represents a tie, then 14 inches are required in winter’s waning weeks just to even the score.
(For the record, Washington, D.C. hasn’t received at least 14 inches of snow in March since 1960, when a hefty 17.1 inches fell.)
The pattern for next week or so favors cooler than average temperatures, which conceivably could set the stage for a snowy rally. But a storm (or two or three) is needed. Enter March 6 - maybe.
The European model is trying to develop a formidable storm in that time period. Both of its last two runs have shown powerful area of low pressure developing along or just offshore the Mid-Atlantic coast. Last night’s run clobbered areas along and especially west of I-95; this morning’s run was a near-miss, slamming coastal areas.
The GFS model also develops an area of storminess, but too far south and east of the region to be of consequence.
It’s premature (8 days out) to microanalyze each and every model, and model run. Determining storm details that far out is simply not possible. But for the next couple days, we’ll keep an eye on the situation and keep you informed.
Overall, the chances of little or no snow are much greater than a meaningful snowstorm. But for snow lovers, there’s at least a little hope, or something interesting to watch. The overall pattern is about as favorable for a snow event as it’s been this year, although that’s not saying a lot.
If you dislike snow, consider that the anti-snow forces just need to play some prevent defense to ensure a victory. That’s proven to be an easy task the last 2+ years.