While no gem, today’s partial sunshine and low 60s may have represented some of the nicer conditions we see for a while. It’s rainy tonight and at least intermittently tomorrow before we transition to a cold pattern Thursday.
Through Tonight: Rush hour is rain free. Mainly light rain moves in between 10 p.m. and 2 a.m. from southwest to northeast. Overnight lows are in the low-to-mid 40s. Overnight rainfall potential is just 0.1-0.25”.
Tomorrow (Wednesday): Intermittent rain showers are likely during the morning into the early afternoon, with the greatest coverage probably north of the District. From the District and especially points south, rain is less widespread and intervals of sunshine are possible. Later in the afternoon and into the evening, the coverage of showers and possibly thunderstorms increases as the cold front and area of low pressure nears. A few thunderstorms could produce strong winds, small hail and heavy rain. Day time rainfall amounts are likely to be variable, ranging from 0.25-0.5 (but locally higher in t’torms) from the District and to the south, and around 0.5-75” north of the District (again, locally higher in t’storms).
High temperatures are tricky. Most spots in the metro region probably hold in the 50s, but locations just to the south toward Fredericksburg could pop well into the 60s to near 70 if the sun breaks through. Because the temperature gradient will be very tight, it’s not out of the question this warmer air reaches the metro region. If it does, the risk of severe weather will increase.
Snow prospects: Tomorrow’s rainstorm for us is a snowstorm for northeast Pa. and southern New York with a ribbon of 4+” possible. Even the Big Apple could get a sloppy coating. So what about snow in metro D.C.? The SPI came out of retirement this morning for the chance of some snow Sunday morning. This morning’s GFS model continues to show the possibility of some wet snow, while the Euro model backed off - suppressing the possible snowmaker to the south. Both the GFS and the European suggest another chance of flakes next Tuesday, but that’s getting into fantasy-land when model performance isn’t great. Generally speaking, the overall pattern is what you want to see for late season snow, but the pieces have to come together. The later in the calendar we go, the bigger the challenge of putting those pieces together. More tomorrow.