UPDATE, 9:00 p.m.: the Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been canceled, but heavy downpours continue along and east of I-95. The heaviest rains have relented west of I-95 and should decrease in the eastern suburbs by 10-11 p.m. Then light to moderate showers will fall before tapering off by 1-2 a.m. Although a Flash Flood Warning remains in effect around the District, amounts have generally been less than 1” and major problems are not anticipated.

UPDATE, 8:15 p.m.: Flash flood WARNING for Fairfax co, Falls Church, Arlington, DC, Montgomery & central PG co. thru 11:15. Very heavy rain moving in. 1-2” of rain possible in very short time span. Be very careful driving.

UPDATE, 8:00 p.m.: The Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been peeled back and no longer covers Frederick and Loudoun county and points north and west. However, a Flash Flood Warning has been issued for western Fairfax, western Prince William, southeast Loudoun, east central Fauquier counties and Manassas through 10:30 p.m. as storms with very heavy rain are moving through. Never drive thru flooded waters. Turn around, don’t drown.

UPDATE, 7:00 p.m.: The Severe Thunderstorm Watch now covers the entire metro region except for counties adjacent to the Chesapeake Bay. A strong line of storm stretch through the western half of Montgomery county through eastern Loudoun and into northern Fauquier county. It should move inside the beltway after 8 p.m. Heavy downpours, lightning and gusty winds are likely with this line of storms.

UPDATE, 4:45 p.m.: Severe Thunderstorm Watch for Loudoun, Fauquier, Frederick, Carroll counties and north and west (map) through 10 p.m.

We’ve logged our second straight 90+ day but a cold front rumbling through the area over the next 24 hours favors no three-peat Wednesday. Said cold front will produce widespread showers and thunderstorms this evening, capable of producing strong winds, lightning and very heavy rain.

Through Tonight: Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are likely well west and northwest of the District towards the mountains through early this evening. More widespread showers and storms then move into the immediate metro region as the evening wears on. Heavy downpours and lightning are likely widespread, especially between 7 and midnight. Isolated flash flooding cannot be ruled out. A few storms may contain damaging wind gusts and small hail.

After midnight, showers decrease in coverage and intensity, shifting east and northeast. Overnight lows range from 66-71 (suburbs-city).

Wednesday: An isolated shower or two is possible in the morning, especially along and east of I-95. Then the front clears and drier air slowly filters in. Partly to mostly sunny skies in the afternoon, with highs in the mid-to-upper 80s.

See Matt Rogers’ forecast through the weekend. And if you haven’t already, join us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter. For related traffic news, check out Dr. Gridlock.

Northeast severe thunderstorm outbreak: From southern Pennsylvania through Vermont, severe thunderstorm and tornado watches are in effect through this evening. Multiple reports of large hail to golf ball size (even one report of 3.5” hail, nearly grapefruit size!) have come in from storms in western New York and Vermont where several tornado warnings have also been issued. Links: Latest tornado warnings | thunderstorm warnings | Northeast regional radar