The Washington Post

Snow or frozen mix quite possible Friday


Computer models are in good agreement that a storm system will develop in the Tennessee Valley Thursday and track towards the Washington, D.C. region Friday.

Next chance of accumulating snow: Friday

Probability of at least 1 inch: 30 percent

With cold air in place, snow and/or a frozen mix of precipitation appear to be a strong possibility, although there is a slight chance the storm cuts to the north, which would favor rain.

The European model shows sub-freezing temperatures and over 0.5” liquid equivalent precipitation falling Friday afternoon. That would equate to substantial snow accumulations if it’s right. (

But today’s models, compared to Sunday’s, track the storm farther south, which is more for favorable for snow. Today’s European model, for example, simulates a substantial amount of snow (over 4 inches if it were to verify).

Even in the rainy scenario (a track near or just to the north of us), at least a period of snow, sleet and/or freezing raining would be difficult to avoid at the onset of precipitation.

It’s too early to project snow and/or ice amounts, but stay tuned to future forecasts.

CWG’s winter weather expert Wes Junker will provide detailed analysis tomorrow.

(The Snow Lover’s Crystal Ball appears when there is at least a 30 percent chance of more than 1 inch of snow beyond 24-36 hours into the future.)

Jason is the Washington Post’s weather editor and Capital Weather Gang's chief meteorologist. He earned a master's degree in atmospheric science, and spent 10 years as a climate change science analyst for the U.S. government. He holds the Digital Seal of Approval from the National Weather Association.


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