The Washington Post

Super typhoon Jelawat to threaten Okinawa then Japan

Super typhoon Jelawat as of 8 a.m. EDT this morning. (Navy Research Laboratory)

Jelawat is the equivalent of a category-4 hurricane, with peak sustained winds of 150 mph. Briefly Tuesday, it reached category-5 strength with maximum sustained winds of 160 mph becoming the second strongest storm on Earth in 2012, trailing only Sanba whose peak winds reached 178 mph.

Projected track of super typhoon Jelawat (Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) projects it will be in the vicinity of Okinawa Saturday. Then, Jelawat is forecast to continue northeastward - gaining speed - towards mainland Japan with a possible landfall south of Tokyo near Hamamatsu on Honshu’s south coast Sunday into Monday. Note, however, the JTWC cautions: “There remains low confidence in the extended forecast track.”

The storm has an impressive appearance on satellite right with now with a large, well-defined eye about 29 miles across. However, it is expected to gradually weaken due to increasing wind shear and decreasing water temperatures. It is predicted to be the equivalent of a category 1 or 2 storm when it’s near Okinawa and perhaps just a minimal hurricane or tropical storm when it affects mainland Japan.

Jason is the Washington Post’s weather editor and Capital Weather Gang's chief meteorologist. He earned a master's degree in atmospheric science, and spent 10 years as a climate change science analyst for the U.S. government. He holds the Digital Seal of Approval from the National Weather Association.

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