The Washington Post

Tropical storm Emily remnants may regenerate; typhoon Muifa nears China

After weakening from a tropical storm to a tropical wave over the mountainous terrain of Hispaniola, the remnants of Emily have now emerged over the southern Bahamas. The National Hurricane Center says the tropical wave has a 60% chance of regaining tropical storm status. However, little or no impact is expected along the U.S. East Coast.

Animation of tropical storm Emily as it develops in the Caribbean and is then shred apart over Hispaniola. Some regeneration in the final frames? Source: NOAA.

Sparing Haiti for the most part, Emily caused some flooding in the Dominican Republic that resulted in two deaths the Miami Herald reported.

Emily’s present and future

The latest satellite imagery shows that thunderstorm activity, after deteriorating overnight, is starting to fire up again - one indication the wave may try to re-organize. However, there are no signs of a low level circulation, at the moment.

Forecast models track the remnants just offshore the southeast coast of Florida before curving it sharply out to sea. Should tropical storm Emily reform, it would probably occur far enough away from the Florida coast in distance and/or in time to spare the area from significant wind or rain (although some tropical showers and gusty breezes can’t be ruled out). Farther to the north along the coast, the only possible impact from Emily might be some slightly elevated surf. No computer model projects a rejuvenated Emily would acquire more than strong tropical storm characteristics.

Typhoon Muifa

Track forecast for typhoon Muifa ( Joint Typhoon Warning Center )

Voice of America writes: “Authorities in that major commercial hub say the storm could be as powerful as Typhoon Matsa, which killed four people and caused more than $15 million in damage in 2005.”

CNN reported: “Rainfall from Muifa will cover a million square kilometers (386,000 square miles) as the typhoon lingers for up to 11 days, Lou Maoyuan, deputy chief of the Zhejiang Provincial Meteorological Station, told Xinhua [the state-run news agency]”.

On Thursday, the storm produced nearly 18” of rain in 24 hours over Okinawa - including 8.5” in one four hour stretch, according to Stars and Stripes. A peak wind gust of 97 mph was recorded at Kadena Air Base.

Jason is the Washington Post’s weather editor and Capital Weather Gang's chief meteorologist. He earned a master's degree in atmospheric science, and spent 10 years as a climate change science analyst for the U.S. government. He holds the Digital Seal of Approval from the National Weather Association.


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