Packing maximum sustained winds of 80 mph, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center describes an intensifying storm with “deepening convective bands wrapping into a ragged eye.” Forecast to accelerate northeastward, some additional strengthening is possible in the next 24 hours.
Then, Roke will encounter colder waters, hostile wind shear, and likely begin weakening. Nonetheless, it is forecast to make landfall near Kyoto in about 30 hours or 8 a.m. EDT Wednesday at strong tropical storm (peak winds of around 70 mph), just under typhoon strength ( winds of 74 mph or higher). Minor to moderate wind damage is possible where the storm makes landfall.
AccuWeather, however, is still calling for peak rainfall to reach 10 inches or more - “enough to trigger flooding and landslides in the mostly hilly to mountainous landscape.”
The Mainichi Daily News described impressive downpours that occurred on Japan’s southwestern islands Sunday:
....violent storms occurred in Okinawa and Kyushu Island in southwestern Japan, with precipitation of 67.5 millimeters per hour in Okinawa’s Kitadaito Island and 56.0 mm in Gokase, a record for September in the Miyazaki Prefecture town
Before Sunday, Roke had charted a curious course, making a full 360 degree loop south of Japan before turning north. Stars and Stripes blogger Dave Ornauer described it as “long a case study for the most unusual of weather systems.”