UPDATE 10:30 PM: Storms to the south have headed further away and no activity is currently in the area. It’s looking like a mostly quiet night. We deserve it!
UPDATE 8:20 PM: Severe weather this evening has remained south of the area so far, and there’s even been a report of a tornado to the northeast of Richmond in the last 20 minutes. Some showers and storms have fired up locally across Loudoun County. They should continue to head east and southeast. These storms are not severe at the moment but may contain heavy rain and lightning.
UPDATE 6:15 PM: An area of strong to severe storms that has developed southwest of D.C. should stay south of the metro area as it tracks east through Fredericksburg and beyond over the next 1-2 hours. Radar remains quiet closer to home, but we’re still watching showers and storms in western Ohio that aren’t as strong as yesterday’s, but could impact the area after 10 p.m.
UPDATE 4:45 PM: While storms are not likely to be as intense/widespread tonight, NOAA may issue severe thunderstorm watch for areas near, west and south of D.C.
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Original post: Thankfully, somewhat cooler and drier air trickled into the region behind Friday night’s violent storms. Although it’s still quite hot (mid-90s), the atmosphere is not as unstable as last night. Some thunderstorms may still develop (40 percent chance), but they should not be as intense or widespread as what we just experienced.
Here’s an excerpt from the National Weather Service afternoon forecast discussion:
ATMOSPHERE STILL HAS NOT RECOVERED WELL IN THE WAKE OF LAST EVENING’S CONVECTION. THIS WOULD TEND TO BE A HINDRANCE FOR WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND A REPEAT OF LAST EVENING/S SEVERE EVENT APPEARS UNLIKELY.
It nevertheless cautions:
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY STILL DEVELOP WHICH WOULD BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
Keep reading for the forecast details through Sunday...
Through Tonight: Skies are partly cloudy, with a 30-50% chance of thunderstorms (lowest odds north of D.C., highest south of D.C.). Storms have not yet developed, but the time window from 7 p.m. to midnight seems most conducive should they decide to.
Any storms that form could produce dangerous winds, with the best chance of that from Fredericksburg to southern Maryland and points south. It’s quite warm, with lows from the mid-60s in the cooler suburbs to the mid-70s downtown. Winds are from the west.
Sunday: Expect a similar day to today, with partly to mostly sunny skies and very hot, but not excessively hot temperatures. As hundreds of thousands of residents remain without air conditioning, caution is urged.
Highs reach the mid-to-upper 90s with moderate humidity levels. There’s an outside chance of late day thunderstorms (20 percent chance), with better odds again south of town.