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D.C. area forecast: Still cold with another snow threat Monday night, then a major warm-up

10:05 p.m. Update: While models have generally trended lower over the past 24 hours with precipitation amounts for Monday night into early Tuesday, they still hold on to the potential for a period of accumulating snow, which may eventually mix with sleet. Here are the key points as of now:

*Too early to pin down accumulations, but as little as a half-inch to as much as 2 inches is our best guess as of now

*Areas north of D.C. have a better chance at seeing the higher end of that range, while the District toward points south are more likely to see the lower end.

*The most likely timing for snow is between 11 p.m. and 6 a.m. from west to east across the area.

*Sleet may mix in during the latter part of the period as some warmer air moves in at the mid-levels of the atmosphere

*From Monday night lows in the upper 20s to near 30, Tuesday temperatures should rise above freezing by around 9 a.m., and into the 40s during the afternoon.

Bottom line, things could still change a bit either way (lower or higher snow amounts), but at the very least there is the potential for some disruptions and delays heading back to work and school Tuesday morning. We’ll have more tomorrow starting at 5 a.m.

10:45 a.m. Update: A nice window of sun this morning gives way to increasing clouds this afternoon, and still with a dusting possible from snow showers mid-afternoon into evening. Latest model data for Monday night has trended drier and more to the north of D.C. as far as significant snow or wintry mix chances go. Our forecast below mentions the possibility of an inch or two locally *if* the system is strong enough. That is still within the realm of possibility, but with better accumulation odds in the north suburbs than from D.C. to the south.

Today’s Daily Digit

A somewhat subjective rating of the day’s weather, on a scale of 0 to 10.

Still chilly and a possible snow shower or two maintains the wintry mood, despite the lighter winds.

Express Forecast

Today: Partly to mostly cloudy. Chance of p.m. snow showers. Highs: Mid-30s.

Tonight: Evening snow shower? Lows: Upper teens to low 20s.

Tomorrow: Increasing clouds, still cold. Mid-30s.


From 6 a.m. … We’re not out of winter yet, and its chill stays with us long enough to keep us bundled up through the long weekend.  The good news is a warm-up is on the way as we get into the shortened work week, and looks to stick around for a while.  Before that, however, we’re watching another chance of snow or wintry mix Monday night. It doesn’t look like a lot at the moment, but could be just enough to cause some disruptions as we head back to work and school on Tuesday.

Radar & lightning: Latest D.C. area radar shows movement of precipitation and lightning strikes over past two hours. Refresh page to update. Click here or on image to enlarge. Or see radar bigger on our Weather Wall.

Today (Sunday): After the chance of an early-morning flurry, skies are partly to mostly cloudy and we’re still in the chill, with highs struggling back to the mid-30s this afternoon. Winds from the west-northwest slacken off from yesterday’s bluster, though we could see a few snow showers during the afternoon into evening, capable of a dusting in spots. Confidence: Medium-High

Tonight: We still see the risk of a snow shower dropping a quick dusting through early evening. Then high pressure builds in, as does the peak of this weekend’s chilliness. With clearing skies and calming winds overnight, our temperatures should sink to the upper teens to low 20s for overnight lows. Confidence: High

For related traffic news, check out Dr. Gridlock. Keep reading for our thoughts on the snow threat Monday night…

Tomorrow (Presidents Day): The final day of our holiday weekend starts off with some sun, but clouds increase during the afternoon as another area of low pressure approaches from the west.  High pressure should hold off precipitation for the time being, but also keep the cold air in place with highs again only in the mid-30s. Fortunately winds remain light. Confidence: Medium-High

Snow Potential Index

A daily assessment of the potential for at least ~1″ of snow in the next week, on a 0-10 scale.

6 (→) Decent chance for a sloppy inch or two with Monday night’s quick-hitter before big warm-up

Tomorrow night: Yet another shot of snow or a wintry mix seems likely as low pressure swings through during the late evening and overnight. As of now, winds from the south-southeast look too light to scour the cold air in place. So if the system is strong enough, a sloppy inch or two could accumulate before the precipitation moves out by around sunrise, as lows dip to the upper 20s to near 30. Confidence: Low-Medium


Any snow or wintry mix should end by the start of the Tuesday morning commute, but the impacts could linger a few hours longer until temperatures warm up. They will indeed warm up, though. Skies turn partly to mostly sunny by afternoon, helping highs rebound well into the 40s. Some upper-level energy moves in by Tuesday night, bringing with it some clouds and perhaps a passing rain shower as well.  Overnight lows settle in the 30s. Confidence: Medium

A few rain showers may linger early in the day on Wednesday, but the main story is the warmth. In fact, there may well be a taste of spring in the air with clearing skies and temperatures climbing to highs in the 50s. Confidence: Medium

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Dan Stillman · February 15, 2014

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