Beyonce and Jay-Z. (Bill Kostroun/AP)

The New York Times published an updated formula Monday for predicting how long celebrity marriages will last. It factors in age, fame level, “scantily-clad” images and dating time, as well as the number of mentions the celebrities have in the Times and National Enquirer. Garth Sundem, a self-described writer and “sometime mathematician,” and Times reporter John Tierney first created the equation in 2006, accurately predicting the demise of three celeb marriages, including Demi Moore and Ashton Kutcher’s. Read about how they refined the formula over at the Times here.

Sundem and Tierney have compiled an impressively long list of celebrities and their chances at prolonged wedded bliss. It’s apparently bad news for Mariah Carey and Nick Cannon, as well as Nicole Kidman and Keith Urban, according to the men. The couples have just a 5 percent and 16 percent chance of still being together by their 15th wedding anniversary.

But it seems we’ll have to break out the crystal for Beyonce and Jay-Z, who have a 55 percent chance of making it to that point.

Check out the full list and the equation here.

View Photo Gallery: A look at celebrity couple Jay-Z and Beyonce.