Republican presidential candidate former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney speaks during an appearance at a Grassroots Rally at Arapahoe High School on Monday in Centennial, Colorado. (Marc Piscotty/GETTY IMAGES)

 The Romney campaign’s national political director, Rich Beeson, wrote in the memo that Romney “is the only candidate with the organizational strength and broad-based appeal to secure delegates in all remaining primaries and caucuses.”

 The memo comes as public polling suggests Romney could lose to former senator Rick Santorum (Pa.) in Missouri and Minnesota; Romney is the heavy favorite to win the Colorado caucuses. All three states can provide momentum to successful candidates, but no GOP convention delegates will be awarded based on the outcomes.

 In the memo, titled “The Road Ahead – A Reality Check,” Beeson wrote that Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) lost 19 states on his way to winning the nomination in 2008, and that “we expect our opponents to notch a few wins too.”

 “Even ‘success’ in a few states will not mean collecting enough delegates to win the nomination,” Beeson wrote.

 He dismissed former House speaker Newt Gingrich’s strategy to rebound in the Southern states holding March contests as “a flight of fancy and not grounded in reality,” while Santorum and Rep. Ron Paul (Tex.) do not have the resources to compete nationally.

 Read the full memo after the jump.

 

MEMORANDUM

TO:                  Interested Parties

FROM:            Rich Beeson, Political Director

SUBJECT:      The Road Ahead – A Reality Check

DATE:             February 7, 2012

 Since launching his campaign for President in June, Governor Romney has dominated the debates, travelled tens of thousands of miles rallying Americans with his conservative message of American renewal and clearly emerged as the one Republican who can defeat President Obama and restore American greatness.


Republican presidential candidate former House speaker Newt Gingrich. (David Becker/Getty Images)

Past Contests

After a virtual tie in Iowa, Governor Romney won resounding victories in New Hampshire, Florida and Nevada.  He now has a significant delegate lead, and he is the only candidate to have earned delegates in every available contest. 

Future Contests 

The Reality of February


Republican presidential candidate and former U.S. senator Rick Santorum. (Ethan Miller/GETTY IMAGES)

March Contests

The rules for the March states offer even less comfort to Governor Romney’s opponents.  With so many states and territories voting, organization and resources are key.  Ours is the only campaign to be active in all of these states, and we have the resources and organization to maximize delegate totals according to each state’s rules.  Speaker Gingrich and Senator Santorum have no plan in the majority of the March states (although the Paul campaign has waged a systematic effort in a number of them).   Governor Romney is the only candidate prepared to compete in simultaneous contests across the country.   

Speaker Gingrich indicated Saturday night that the Southern states in March were his strength.  This is a flight of fancy and not grounded in reality.  In Virginia, Gingrich failed to qualify for the ballot.  Because only Governor Romney and Congressman Paul will be on the ballot (and write-ins are not permitted), one candidate will receive either all or a significant majority of Virginia’s 46 bound delegates, which are awarded to the candidate who receives more than 50% statewide and in each CD.   And Texas, which Speaker Gingrich cited as a firewall in his bitter post-Nevada press conference, has moved from Super Tuesday to at least April 3, and possibly as late as June.  


Republican presidential candidate Rep. Ron Paul (Texas). (Julie Jacobson/Associated Press)

In addition, Speaker Gingrich faces other March states that are far less favorable to him: Washington, Alaska, Idaho, Massachusetts, North Dakota, Ohio, Vermont, Guam, Kansas, Northern Marianas, Virgin Islands, American Samoa, Hawaii, Puerto Rico, and Illinois will all be casting votes. 

Competing in the March states will take resources, a national organization, and broad-based appeal that Speaker Gingrich, Senator Santorum and Congressman Paul simply do not have.  This is exactly the sort of operation Governor Romney has been building from the beginning of this campaign. 

Conclusion

Speaker Gingrich’s and Senator Santorum’s campaigns have resource challenges. The remaining February states may not be kind to them, and their hopes for a comeback in March may be very difficult and based on an incomplete understanding of the delegate selection rules.  Even “success” in a few states will not mean collecting enough delegates to win the nomination.  

In contrast, Governor Romney will be competing across the country and collecting delegates in state after state, even if other candidates pick up some wins.  This is exactly the sort of methodical, long-haul campaign we planned for, and we are well on the way to victory.