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Republicans think the supercommittee will succeed. Democrats don't.

In a new poll of “congressional insiders,” the National Journal finds that an overwhelming number of Beltway Republicans think the deficit-reduction supercommittee will succeed, while most Democrats think it will fail:


(SOURCE: NATIONAL JOURNAL)

Why the difference? Certainly Republicans aren’t inclined to compromise on taxes to raise revenue. Although a small number of Republicans have rebelled against the party’s hard line, they’re still on the fringes of the debate. The National Journal asked its pool of Beltway insiders whether they’d accept a range of major tax reforms to raise revenue, and 46 percent of Republicans replied “none of the above”:


(SOURCE: NATIONAL JOURNAL)

So it seems Republicans think that the supercommittee can come up with a deal without tax revenue increases and that Democrats will have to bend. Democrats agree that’s where the supercommittee will be stuck — but, it seems, they believe that the Democrats in the group will refuse to let such a deal go forward. After all, the alternative of the trigger being pulled might not be such a bad option for Democrats anyway.

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