I don’t think it’s likely that Rep. Paul Ryan will run for president in 2012, but if you’ll excuse a double negative, I think it’s less unlikely than people realize. Particularly if President Obama’s poll numbers continue to sag.

The arguments for Ryan’s run would be mostly the same as those for Obama’s run, with the big differences being that a) Obama looks a lot stronger in 2012 than the Republicans did in 2008, b) Ryan would be starting a lot later in the process than Obama did and c) the current Republican field is a lot weaker than the Democrats’ 2008 field, which included Hillary Clinton, a pre-scandal John Edwards, Joe Biden, Bill Richardson, etc.