Greg Ip thinks the fact that the bond market isn’t worried about the debt ceiling suggests that the rest of us should be even more worried because we’re the ones who’ll take the initial hit. But I think this is all a bit too much tea-leaf reading. It’s been clear for some time that the debt ceiling wouldn’t be raised the moment it was hit. Instead, Tim Geithner has set Aug. 2 as the deadline for getting to a deal. If we find ourselves with no deal on Aug. 1 and the bond market remains calm, that’d be interesting. But yesterday’s serenity is no great mystery: It would have been very strange for the bond market to freak out about a deadline that no one, including the Secretary of the Treasury, was taking seriously. Any concerns related to that had been priced into the market long ago.
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