If you live in North Dakota, Minnesota, Wisconsin or Michigan’s Upper Penninsula, brush up on your Bing Crosby lyrics: You are almost certainly going to wake up on Christmas morning with an inch of snow on the ground.

That’s according to data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which put together a historical probability chart of the United States. And the data shows the upper Midwest gets a white Christmas — defined as at least one inch of snow on the ground — more than 50 percent of the time.

Residents in Idaho, Salt Lake City, most of Wyoming and almost all of New England should have their snow shovels ready. But folks in the South should just keep on dreaming: Southerners experience a white Christmas less than once every 10 years.