Voter turnout in California could reach its lowest level in the modern era by two measures if a new estimate by one polling organization pans out.

The Field Poll predicts that only 8.2 million Californians will turn out Tuesday, a number that represents a record low among registered voters and eligible adult citizens.

An estimated 24.3 million adult citizens living in California are eligible to register and vote, nearly 3 in 4 of whom are registered, according to the Field Poll. Should the organization’s prediction come true, 46 percent of the state’s registered voters and nearly 34 percent of its eligible adults will have turned out. Here’s a look at how that fits in historically (2014 numbers are obviously estimates):

But at the same time that overall turnout could reach a record low for the modern era, Field researchers say they expect mail-in turnout to reach a new high, accounting for 3 of every 5 votes cast.