Democrats have their strongest advantage in Massachusetts. Republicans are most advantaged in Wyoming.
That’s according to Gallup’s annual “State of the States” series, in which the polling organization surveyed more than 175,000 American adults last year on which party they identify with.
Republicans led Democrats by nearly 36 percentage points in Wyoming, more than 33 points in Utah and more than 25 points in Idaho. Democrats led by nearly 22 points in Massachusetts and nearly 21 points in Maryland. Those advantages — based on the difference in the share of residents who identify or lean toward one party or the other — are telling but not necessarily indicative of how each state will vote.
“Of course, the figures presented here are based on all state residents, and differences in turnout, which usually favor Republicans, can alter the political balance of the state electorate in a given election,” Gallup notes. “Since 2008, there has been a significant movement away from the Democratic Party both at the national level and in many states.”
Indeed, nationally, Democrats had a three-point advantage last year, a dramatic fall from their 30-point advantage in 2008, a quarter-century peak for the party.
Since it began tracking such responses seven years ago, nine states have consistently ranked among the top 10 most-Democratic each year. They are Massachusetts, Maryland, Rhode Island, New York, Vermont, California, Hawaii, Delaware and Illinois. Connecticut and New Jersey tied for 10th this year, after alternately rotating through the top 10 since 2008. Maine tied for 10th in 2008.
There has been much more variation among Republican states. Seventeen have ranked among the top 10 since 2008. This year, Midwestern and Western states dominated the list, which included the Midwestern states Kansas, Nebraska, North Dakota and South Dakota, and the Western states Idaho, Montana, Utah and Wyoming. Tennessee and Alabama also ranked in the top 10.
The top 10 in each party held an advantage of at least 10 percentage points. Six states leaned Democratic, with a five-point advantage, and five leaned Republican. The remaining 18 states were “competitive,” having less than a five-point advantage in favor of either party.