* What to watch for tonight: Will Obama’s speech spell out a clear role for America not just in Libya, but in the whole region?

* Obama will not signal that the Libya mission is about sending a warning to other regional leaders who are using violence to hang on to power.

* The next thing to watch: It’s not clear that the Obama administration’s vow to send arms to rebels would even be legal given the UN arms embargo over the whole country.

* Congressional Dems are mulling whether to vote on a formal declaration of support for the Libya mission, a sign that the doubts Obama must dispell with his speech tonight are running deep.

* Scott Walker’s administration begins treating the proposal to rollback bargaining rights as law, despite a judge’s temporary restraining order, which will only fuel a sense that Wisconsin Republicans have gone rogue and add more energy to the drive to recall them.

* A new CNN poll finds that Americans are almost exactly divided over which side they prefer on the deficit, with 46 percent siding with Obama and 45 percent with the GOP, which again raises the question why Congressional Dems have mostly capitulated in negotiations to the GOP’s austerity/cut-cut-cut frame.

* Meanwhile, with talks between Senate Dems and the House GOP having broken down, Dems are apparently preparing to offer House Republicans another $20 billion in cuts.

* Jed Lewison predicts that the House GOP’s overreach in the budget fight could reach Scott Walker-esque heights in the eyes of the public.

* Breaking: McClatchy says what must not be said:

States broke? Maybe they cut taxes too much

*What if the best political strategy for Dems on Social Security and Medicare is to vow to never, ever touch either program in any way, and Dem strategists were congenitally incapable of imaging this to be the case?

* Dick Durbin’s Muslim hearings, set to kick off tomorrow, are about renewing the founding’s committment to religious liberty for all religious groups.

* The 2012 GOP hopefuls are free to outpander each other with anti-Muslim bigotry because the media won’t call it out for what it is, i.e., bigotry.

* Former State Department spokesman P.J. Crowley says he has no regrets whatsoever for calling out the Obama administration’s treatment of Bradley Manning as “ridiculous and counterproductive and stupid.”

* And the snark of the day, from Digby, on the news that House Republicans are gunning for the AARP:

I sure hope someone warned AARP about a skinny white guy in a pimp costume.

Get ready for more bogus video stings, and lots of media coverage of them!

What else is happening?