* It was really surprising that commentators who should know better pretended that today’s poll showing Mitt Romney edging Obama a year and a half out was hugely significant. It wasn’t, as Steve Benen’s tour of some previous unpredictive early horse race polling clearly shows.

* The Bush tax cuts turn 10 years old today, and Americans United for Change celebrates with a roundup of all the ways they didn’t do anything to help the economy.

* The Bush tax cuts were more responsible for our deficits than any other legislative initiative, and they proved that taxes are not a barrier to economic growth.

* Dems blast a new House GOP plan for opting out of Social Security as a “risky privatization scheme,” a sign that they think the entitlements gift will keep on giving.

* Imagine how much national money and media coverage will rain down on Wisconsin if Paul Ryan’s Dem challenger develops any real chance of unseating him.

* Depressing catch by Atrios: “just now talking about the economy Obama started to say we need to have a plan, and then corrected himself and said we needed to have a path forward.”

* Historians will look back and marvel at the Obama administration’s fatal pivot from stimulus spending to deficit reduction.

* What if Mitt Romney’s narrative as a corporate turnaround wizard is actually a political liability?

* Jason Linkins says Weiner needs to go because of all the lying.

* Great read from Glenn Greenwald on how the Weiner tale, unlike other sexual “scandals,” is unique for its utter lack of substantive or legal relevance.

* Why the right’s obsession with “American exceptionalism” is dangerous to the future of our country.

* Ronald Reagan didn’t want to do away with Medicare.

* Senate Dems release a Web video featuring footage of Republicans insisting that Ryancare must be part of the debt ceiling talks — something Dems have been flogging relentlessly as the perfect expression of GOP priorities.

* Takedown of the day, from David Frum, on the right’s bizarre effort to blame Obama’s deficit reduction speech for the bad economy:

Which is more likely to subtract from business confidence: a lame speech by the president — or a highly credible and sustained threat by the majority party in the House of Representatives to force a default on the debts, contracts, and other obligations of the United States?

* Blue Dog Dem Dan Boren’s retirement means it will be a lot tougher for Dems to hold this seat in one of the most conservative districts in the country.

* And today’s 2012 hucksterism alert: A Dem Congressman wants to know how much Sarah Palin’s con job of a bus tour cost us in the way of taxpayer funded National Park Services resources.

What else is happening?