* Tonight’s GOP debate kicks off at 8 p.m. eastern time. Jonathan Bernstein will be live-tweeting it right here, and he’ll have reaction later on this blog.

* E.J. Dionne nails the meaning of yesterday’s results:

Tuesday’s results underscored the power of unions and populist politics, the danger to conservatives of social-issue extremism and the fact that 2010 was no mandate for right-wing policies.

* Republican strategists are privately admitting that the lesson of 2011 is that 2012 won’t be 2010.

* The Center for American Progress crunches the numbers and finds that the GOP proposal to drop the top tax rate from 35 percent to 28 percent would alone cost $670 billion, all of it benefitting the rich.

That’s quite a “concession”!

* Good: Sam Stein nails down that Bill Daley was shuffled in order to improve White House relations with Congressional Dems.

* How it really works: The Drudge/right wing noise machine propagandists know full well that if they make enough noise, regardless of the facts, they can often force the other side to cave out of sheer exhaustion and a desire to make the noise go away.

* Is Ohio key to Obama’s reelection? Dan Balz does a deep dive into ongoing debate about the electoral map, shifting democraphics, and the hugely consequential strategic decisions the Obama team faces.

* Chart of the day, courtesy of Paul Krugman: Yes, Reagan-era deregulation did lead to a huge boom — for the top 1 percent.

* Ezra Klein on the inequality denial camp’s latest slicing and dicing of the numbers.

* Jamison Foser marvels at John McCain’s newfound hand-wringing about the GOP’s failure to do enough for “the people,” and wonders if it’s a sign that resurgent populism has the GOP a bit on edge.

* I meant to hit this yesterday, but Atrios’s comments about the subversive atmosphere of the early Internets really brought me back, and drove home how much things have changed.

* And as you watch tonight’s debate, keep in mind Tony Blankley’s piece gaming out the possibility of a deadlocked GOP primary and a contentious convention battle for the nomination.

What else is happening?