It’s a quiet day for the most part, but still plenty of good stuff to get to:

1. Ewe Reinhardt explains why the individual mandate and solving the pre-existing conditions problem are inseparable.

2. The GOP’s dual trigger nightmare, graphed by Ezra Klein.

3. Polling Iowa: just why it’s so hard, and what can be done about it. Molly Ball interviews Des Moines Register pollster J. Ann Selzer.

4. Axe, Activia, and Mitt Romney – a plausible case from David S. Bernstein.

5. Plus a good analysis of Romney’s strength from Joshua Green.

6. Steven Benen reminds everyone that 3 million more Americans are working right now thanks to the stimulus.

7. Kevin Drum reminds everyone that Paul Ryan’s program was for vouchers, not premium support.

8. Meet new Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services nominee Marilyn Tavenner, from Sarah Kliff.

9. Euro-interested? Karl Smith has an excellent post on what what Germany and the European Central Bank could really be doing, and what the real problems are.

10. Brad DeLong sort of wishes the world was the way that Marx and Engels thought it was.

11. Gershom Gorenberg tries to understand American Jews and their attitudes towards Israel.

12. Alexis Madrigal on the problematic concept of #firstworldproblems.

13. And I still haven’t made a contribution to the big nerdfight over forecasting elections, but instead I’ll send people on this holiday weekend to a marginally related essay on Camus, Bill James, and thinking about the world analytically, by my friend Steven Rubio.