* American war-gamers conclude an Israeli strike on Iran could lead to regional war and hundreds of Americans dead, and it’s looking like a big debate over war versus diplomacy could help drive the election.
* Jamelle Bouie does a nice job dinging the “staggering dishonesty” of Romney’s economic speech.
* No end to the dissembling: John Broder skewers Romney’s latest flirtation with the Obama-wants-your-gas-prices-to-soar nonsense.
* Paul Krugman on the “political malpractice” of the Obama pivot to the deficit, with nifty polling from the 1930s that illustrates the point.
* Jonathan Bernstein on the journalistic malpractice of reporters and commentators who base entire discussions of Obama’s alleged poll dip on nothing but outliers. (I resolve not to commit this sin in the future.)
* Obamacare turns two on Friday, and Supreme Court arguments start next week — which means the fixed nature of public opinion on health refom is about to change in a big way, with very high stakes.
* Ron Wyden offers the most extensive defense yet of his partnership with Paul Ryan, which Republicans have seized on to hang the “bipartisan” tag on Ryan’s new Medicare bid, due out tomorrow.
* As Steve Benen notes, there was a time when calling for abolishing the minimum wage would be seen as extreme, even for Republicans. Now it elicits shrugs, the latest sign of the GOP’s rightward drift.
* The wit and wisdom of Rick Santorum: “Republicans don’t believe that presidents fix the economy.”
* Is the Romney-versus-Santorum delegate race much tighter than previously thought?
* And Glenn Greenwald asks: Why is it okay to discuss the motives of Afghan shooter Robert Bales, but not okay to discuss the motives of terrorists who kill Americans?