* Obamacare reality check of the day: David Leonhardt details why you should not be surprised if the “court splits along political lines, much as it did in the Bush v. Gore ruling in 2000.”

* Eva Rodriguez finds hope for the mandate in the fact that the decision will turn on how a majority of the court defines the health care market.

* James Carville makes the case that Dems win if Republicans get their way and Obamacare is overturned:

“The Democrats are going to say, and it is completely justified, ‘We tried, we did something.’...Then the Republican Party will own the healthcare system for the foreseeable future.”

* Katrina Vanden Heuvel sees the crusade to repeal health reform, which would deprive 30 million of health insurance, as symptomatic of a larger moral crisis Republicans are causing in America.

* Takedown of the day: Adam Serwer uncorks a splendid rant at Soliciter General Donald Verrilli for failing to be even remotely prepared to defend liberalism’s premier accomplishment of the last half century.

* Lyle Denniston’s full analysis of today’s SCOTUS arguments is well worth reading. Note this:

The Justices will cast their first votes on the mandate’s constitutionality later this week, and there are perhaps three months of deliberations that would then follow. Much will be said and written within the Court in private during that time, and that obviously could affect the ultimate outcome.

* Steve Benen, on new health care polling: “Americans don’t like the mandate but they love protections for those with preexisting conditions. That the two are linked is something the mainstream simply doesn’t understand.”

* Nice David Roberts piece on the top five things you need to know about the EPA’s announcement of its first limits on carbon polution from power plants, and on all the lies that are likely to be told about them.

* John Boehner delivers Mitt Romney a brushback pitch: No criticizing the President while he’s abroad.

* A new CNN poll finds that 43 percent of Republicans want a brokered convention, perhaps another measure of the reluctance of key GOP constituencies to accept Romney as the nominee.

* Darrell Issa quietly backs off the claim that the Dems’ “where are the women” mantra about GOP contraception hearings was “an outright lie.” So, no, women weren’t allowed to testify on that first panel.

* And Dave Weigel, on the right’s defense of Trayvon shooter George Zimmerman: “When in doubt, smear the dead kid.”

What else?