1. The new CNN poll has Barack Obama’s lead at three points, just below where the national polling averages have been.
2. Could Obama be overperforming in swing states because his ads have been effective with blue-collar white women? Ronald Brownstein makes the case.
3. What if you lose your vote because you were handed the wrong ballot… “because the poll worker believed “798” was an odd number.” The courts are deciding the fate of votes forfeited in Ohio because of poll worker incompetence; yet another thing, Rick Hasen explains, that the election could turn on if it gets very close.
4. I love this: Steve Benen has been keeping track of all the times that Republicans identified some piddly little nothing as “Obama’s Watergate.” He’s up to six, and wonders if there’s a crying-wolf effect that could bite Republicans when and if there is a real scandal. I think he’s on to something.
5. Speaking of which: Republican pollsters are now finding that voters in their focus groups are assuming that Mitt Romney attacks using direct quotes from Barack Obama are probably just taking something out of context. Benjy Sarlin has the details.
6. Dan Larison on Mitt Romney as the “candidate of nostroms” when it comes to foreign policy.
7. While Heather Hurlburt just hears electoral politics when Romney tries to talk foreign affairs.
8. Key Sunday piece: David Leonhardt on what Obama could have done better on the economy in 2009. Admirably reality-based and reasonable.
9. But see too Jonathan Chait’s point that we shouldn’t hold Obama to a standard of perfection; even granting each of Leonhardt’s points, Obama still comes off looking pretty good.
10. Debates: Paul Waldman points out that while the spin room was always stupid, now it’s even stupider.
11. As Nathan Gonzales points out, Twitter could decide the winner and loser “before the candidates even leave the stage.” Actually, I’d like to see a good study of where the winning spin originates during these debates, and I suspect someone will run one.
12. But Kevin Drum is probably correct that bragging about your awesome zingers in advance is probably not the best indication of a campaign that knows what it’s doing.
13. Sarah Kliff on why today is a big day for health care reform: New hospital cost controls are kicking in. Hey, is that going to make those reruns of Scrubs obsolete? I suppose we all have to give up something. But really, this is important stuff; remember that the long-term federal deficit problem is almost entirely a health care cost problem, so whether this stuff works or not is actually very important.
14. What we don’t know about drones, from Adam Serwer.
15. Read Ed Kilgore on the policy consequences of election results.
16. And Andrew Sabl has several theories of why journalists love “sacrifice.” I like numbers two and three especially.