* Mark Blumenthal deflates the ongoing Mitt Romney “surge” nonsense with, you know, actual polling data.

* Nate Silver chimes in: Polls show Romney’s momentum has stopped. It’s worth noting that Silver and Blumenthal incorporate all the polls into their assessments. The Romney “surge” narrative, by contrast, is based on heavily cherry-picked data.

* Relatedly, Paul Krugman notes that there is a showdown underway between the election interpreters who see “momentum” and “gaffes” around every corner, and the polling “nerds” who look at actual data. Like Krugman, I’m sticking with the nerds.

* The Post editorial board weighs in with a strong endorsement of Obama, slamming Romney’s various policy proposals as evasive and half baked, especially his “promised tax cuts that would blow a much bigger hole in the federal budget while worsening economic inequality.”

* Nate Cohn has a very fine-grained look at why Obama may be on his way to winning Ohio. Obama needs big margins among African Americans, educated voters and folks in the industrial northeast (see the auto bailout), while weakening Romney in southern and southeastern Ohio with brutal outsourcing plutocrat attacks.

* Steve Benen on the tale of a Wisconsin employer who is urging his employees to “think carefully” about the consequences of voting for Obama. The worst part: It’s becoming a pattern.

* Glenn Kessler takes apart Romney’s biggest debate falsehoods, and marvels at the fact that Romney has put them into TV ads, even though the whoppers have been widely debunked.

* Adam Serwer has the latest on how the GOP’s Behghazi smoking gun has gone up in smoke.

* Obama doesn’t always weigh in on state ballot initiatives, but he came out today for initiatives that would legalize gay marriage in Washington State and Maine. As Joe Sudbay put it, "evolving matters.”

Between the gay marriage initiatives in Washington, Maryland and Maine, and the possibility that DOMA could be overturned, next year we may have federally recognized gay marriage in states that are home to 25 percent of the population.

* E.J. Dionne on the real reason Romney is running to the center and pretending Obama followed his lead on the autobailout: He knows his actual positions on taxes, entitlements and government help for the auto industry would be deeply unpopular, if properly understood.

* Leading candidate for the most depressing sentence of the day, from John Broder, on the complete absence of climate change as an issue in this campaign:

Throughout the campaign, Mr. Obama and Mr. Romney have seemed most intent on trying to outdo each other as lovers of coal, oil and natural gas — the very fuels most responsible for rising levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.

* The left-leaning pro-Israel group J-Street has been running an interesting experiment: Hitting GOPers as bad for Israel from the left, to make them pay a price for being too confrontational on Israel’s behalf.

J-Street’s new mailer hitting Rep. Joe Walsh for opposing a two state solution is here; the one hitting Rep. Allen West is here.

* And this cycle has already brought us the Unskewers and the unemployment truthers. Now meet the Nate Silver Truthers.

What else?