It hardly seems necessary to say that Rudy Giuliani has no chance to win the Republican presidential nomination. But with the help of Bill Kristol, he’s going to pretend to run for a while.
So, one more time: he has no chance.
To begin with, it’s an Iron Law of Politics that New York City mayor is a dead-end job. In fact, big city mayors in general tend to have little chance for advancing to statewide (or national office). Medium sized or small cities, sure. But New York, Chicago, Los Angeles? Nope.
That by it self is merely implausible. But Rudy also happens to be a social liberal — and a socially liberal Republican nominee in 2012 is simply not possible. Not going to happen. Giuliani may think that abortion is an important issue mainly for one limited faction of Republicans. But that’s just not true. It’s an issue, and probably a voting issue, for large majorities of Republicans nationwide. It’s one thing to speculate on whether those voters will be willing to accept a Mitt Romney, who is a late and possibly insincere convert to their cause. It’s something else entirely to wonder whether they would accept someone who disagrees with core party issues. They won’t.
I’m a firm believer that it’s pointless to try to get inside the heads of politicians on these sorts of things. Is Rudy going to run just to beat Mitt Romney, out of spite? Is he floating his name to keep his appearance fees high? Does he really, mistakenly, believe he can win? Who knows? For us, all that matters is that he can’t win, and, really, he can’t even seriously compete.