No full length roundup today, but a few links.

* A nice Ed Kilgore meditation on the real reason immigration has an outside shot of passing — it may be an easier ideological concession for Republicans than any other, particularly their commitment to shrinking government. Also check out that video Kilgore flags.

* John Harwood provides a detailed roadmap to the three (ugh, three) crises that lie ahead — the government shutdown, defund Obamacare, and debt limit fights — and has new reporting on one potential way out. But only in the short term. The long term remains a big question mark.

* Jonathan Chait makes the case that conservative demands for maximum destruction have dragged the realm of plausible solutions to the crises so far to the right that come form of chaos (if not default) is likely.

.* Steve Benen says John Boehner’s incompetence in the face of a radicalized House majority means the worst outcome can’t be dismissed as a possibility.

* Brian Beutler buries that absurd Americans for Prosperity ad attacking Obamacare with the tale of a woman whose son has a preexisting condition.

* And another poll finds Bill De Blasio in a dead heat with Christine Quinn in the New York mayoral race, suggesting a win for De Blasio (who’s now being seen as a progressive standard bearer by liberals nationally) is really plausible .