* Paul Ryan, in an interview with Phil Klein, has some sobering advice for his fellow Republicans:

House Budget Committee Chairman Rep. Paul Ryan, R-Wis., in an exclusive interview with the Washington Examiner, warned his fellow Republicans not to count on a wave this November as an excuse to avoid outlining an agenda.

“This idea of running as a referendum, assuming a wave, assuming you’ve got the wind at your back, assuming with an unpopular president we therefore by default will win, I don’t buy that,” the 2012 GOP vice presidential candidate said in the latest edition of the Examiner’s “Dialogue” video series. “I think you’ve gotta give people a reason to vote for you.”

Intriguing notion. I guess they’ll get right on that Obamacare alternative we’ve been hearing about for the last five years.

* The guy who jumped the White House fence and sprinted inside the building was arrested in July in Virginia “while allegedly carrying a sniper rifle, a sawed-off shotgun and a map of the Washington area with the White House and Masonic Temple in Alexandria, Va., circled.” Also, when they caught him this time he had 800 rounds of ammo in his car.

* Yesterday, marches advocating action on climate change took place in cities around the world. Want to guess how many of the five Sunday talk shows mentioned them? If you guessed zero, you’re almost right: it merited one brief mention on This Week, and was completely ignored by all the others.

* The marches were in advance of a major climate summit starting tomorrow at the United Nations. Rebecca Leber has a good curtain raiser explaining what the summiteers will be doing and why you shouldn’t conclude it’s all for nothing just yet.

* The Upshot has the latest good news about Obamacare: If you got health insurance on an exchange and you shop around for next year, you could see premium increases of as little as one percent or less. For those who continue their current plan, premiums will rise by an average of 8.4 percent, which is still lower than the average rate of increase before the ACA passed. So obviously, this law is a failure.

* Sahil Kapur: A federal appeals court has tossed out a conservative doctors’ lawsuit claiming the employer mandate delay violates the ACA statute, which may not bode well for the House GOP lawsuit over the same. By the way, where is that lawsuit, anyway? — gs

* Education has loomed large as an issue in the North Carolina Senate race. Thomas Mills has a nice piece explaining how the state’s history and traditions, which GOP candidate Thom Tillis still fails to grasp, led to this moment.

* Good point from Ed Kilgore: A new ad hitting Alaska Senator Mark Begich on guns shows it’s futile for red state Dems to vote “defensively” on gun control:

Begich has actually been a conspicuously reliable vote against any sort of gun regulation. But that doesn’t matter, since he voted to confirm “anti-gun” Supreme Court nominees Sonia Sotomayor and Elena Kagan. And even if he hadn’t voted for these Justices, he votes “with Obama” all the time, and we all understand Obama wakes up each morning scheming to vitiate the Second Amendment so he will not have to worry about armed patriot resistance when he snatches away America’s birthright of freedom.

As I’ve written before, campaigning as a Democrat in a red state can’t be any fun at all (and the same is true for blue state Republicans).

* Brian Beutler suggests that Kansas Democrats should nominate a candidate with the same name as GOP Senator Pat Roberts. Not to siphon votes away, but to hold a mirror up to GOP electoral trickery. — gs

* The Post has a good editorial on the other beleaguered Kansas Republican, Gov. Sam Brownback, and what his political travails say about conservative governance:

Mr. Brownback’s Kansas trial is rapidly becoming a cautionary tale for conservative governors elsewhere who have blithely peddled the theology of tax cuts as a painless panacea for sluggish growth…It’s possible he may recover from the predicament caused by his radical policy prescription. It’s unclear when Kansas will.

* Even some Republicans now acknowledge that while the current GOP strategy of attacking Dems over “amnesty” might work in the Senate races, it’s going to make things a lot worse for 2016. Seriously. How’s that outreach to Hispanic voters going?

* And at the American Prospect, I asked whether America has the world’s greediest doctors, and if so, why that might be.