That would be nice, but it probably isn’t going to happen. National Journal also talks to some leading Republicans, and the early returns are not promising:
Rep. Steve King of Iowa, a practicing Catholic, said he wasn’t sure this is an area in which the church should be engaged.“When you talk about unpredictable science, I have to ask where’s the nexus between that and the theology of the Vatican?” King said. “I’ve studied the science … and I doubt the pope is going to embrace my position. But this is science, not theology.”“I don’t agree with the pope,” said Sen. James Inhofe of Oklahoma, chairman of the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee and one of Congress’ most outspoken climate skeptics. “I’m not a Catholic, but I’ve got a lot of friends who are, who are wondering: Why all of a sudden is he involved in this? I don’t have the answer for that.“I can’t crawl in his mind. He has the right to say anything he wants, but that doesn’t change the lack of science,” Inhofe added.
It’s interesting that some Republicans are going to argue that the Pope’s diagnosis is not rooted in science, when those same Republicans are at odds with the scientific consensus holding that global warming is happening, that it’s caused by human activity, and that it poses a range of urgent future threats.
The GOP response on climate of late has been a bit puzzling. Many Republicans have been employing the same “I’m not a scientist” response to climate questions with suspicious regularity. The suggestion is that that their own lack of expertise somehow precludes them — as elected officials — from basing their own responses on the issue on what actual scientists do say. And so it’ll be interesting to see how many other Republicans follow the King/Inhofe formulation and suggest that the Pope should stick to theology.
How will the Pope’s encyclical impact the climate debate? The New York Times hopefully suggests that it will put pressure on Catholic GOP presidential candidates such as Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio to engage the issue a little more seriously. I have my doubts: As noted yesterday, polling shows that if anything, partisan and ideological lines around this issue are hardening, with conservative Republicans saying there is no direct evidence of warming. For a variety of reasons, that may get worse throughout the 2016 cycle. We’ll see whether the Pope carries more weight with the GOP hopefuls than GOP primary voters do.
In fairness, some Republicans seem open to the Pope’s message. National Journal notes that Colorado Senator Cory Gardner hopes it spurs a conversation about national energy policy, and Ohio Senator Rob Portman hopes for a real debate about the connections between sound environmental and economic policies. Along these lines, here’s something worth watching: Clearly the Pope’s encyclical will spur renewed debate over climate, so how will Republican Senators up for reelection in Obama states respond? If they are more receptive than the Inhofes and the Kings, that may be another sign the politics of climate are shifting.
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UPDATE: It occurs to me it wasn’t quite fair to claim, as I did in the original post, that Republicans like Inhofe and King are suggesting the Pope isn’t a scientist. It was originally intended as a joke, but it came across as misleading. I’ve edited the above to clarify. The more important point regards the GOP suggestion that the Pope’s diagnosis is not rooted in science, and that remains unchanged.
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* REPUBLICANS BRACE FOR GLORIOUS VICTORY OVER OBAMACARE: The New York Times has an epic dive into how worried Republicans are about the politics that will unfold if they “win” the King v. Burwell lawsuit. They are debating various “contingency fix” plans that would temporarily extend subsidies, and this quote is just perfect:
“I’d be willing to do that on a temporary basis as we transition to something better,” said Representative Andy Barr, Republican of Kentucky. “We all represent people in our districts who are victims of this law. We want to take care of our constituents.”
Yep, all those millions who would lose Obamacare subsidies are victims of Obamacare, and Republicans will protect them from Obamacare by temporarily giving them back Obamacare before repealing it for all its beneficiaries and replacing it with argle-bargle. The Obamacare Fog Machine strikes again!
* A PATH FORWARD ON TRADE? Ryan Grim reports that Congressional aides in both parties may have hit on a way forward: Basically, the House will pass Fast Track by itself, without the Trade Adjustment Assistance for workers that Dems killed (as a way to bring down Fast Track). Then, after that, the Senate would pass Fast Track by itself. Then TAA — attached to another bill — and other measures would pass in both parties (Dems would no longer have an incentive to kill it, because Fast Track has already passed).
The big question: Whether a bloc of a dozen or so pro-trade Democrats in the Senate would be willing to pass Fast Track on its own, on the understanding that worker assistance would pass afterwards.
* MODERATE SENATE DEMS PONDER TRADE: Related to the above: The Post reports that Senate Dems who backed Fast Track (attached to Trade Adjustment Assistance) are internally debating whether they can support Fast Track by itself. One emerging option: They would help pass Fast Track on its own, on the assurance that TAA would get a vote afterwards.
I don’t know if that’s going to work, but it plainly seems premature to pronounce Fast Track and the Trans-Pacific Partnership dead.
* HILLARY HOLDS EDGE OVER GOP RIVALS: A new Quinnipiac poll finds that in Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, Hillary Clinton either leads or is in a too-close-t0-call match-up with all GOP rivals. The one exception: Ohio governor John Kasich leads her in that state. Interestingly, Clinton leads Jeb Bush in Florida by 46-42, and she leads Rubio in that state by 47-44 — and Florida is thought to be a must-win for Republicans.
Also: Rubio runs better against Clinton than all other GOP rivals in all three states.
* HILLARY NOT SEEN AS ‘HONEST AND TRUSTWORTHY’: Also from the new Quinnipiac poll: Florida voters say this by 51-43; Ohio voters by 53-40; and Pennsylvania voters by 54-40. Other polls have suggested the same; it’s unclear whether her campaign is concerned about this, but it’s perhaps noteworthy Clinton has been stressing her background and personal story lately.
* HILLARY TO OFFER YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT PLAN: CBS News reports on what Clinton will propose today in South Carolina:
The Democratic frontrunner is encouraging businesses to hire apprentices by offering them a tax credit of $1500 per apprentice hired…Clinton’s proposal would require some kind of tracking, as well as certain federal and state accountability measures for companies receiving the credit.
This looks like another proposal designed to reach out to a key group in the Obama coalition — younger voters — but one that could also have broad mainstream support, as do a number of other economic measures she’s already adopted.