Thanks to Karl Rove, we’re back to that favorite (since Nov. 4, 2008) political pastime: Will Sarah Palin run for president? On “Fox News Sunday” he said a video on her SarahPAC site makes him think she’s going to go for it.

That’s pretty slick. Not as slick, though, as those heart-pumping videos made for Tim Pawlenty that failed to pump up enough support for his now-failed candidacy. Still, it doesn’t mean that she’s running. Yammering on about putting the country “back on the right track” does not a platform make. But the video does showcase what she does best: being a star.

A gorgeous mosaic of America at the Iowa State Fair talks about how nice she is and how “down to earth” she is. The video shows members of the media doing glowing reports about her. There’s a lot of cheering. And then there’s that Mama Grizzly on her hind legs growling at whatever.  “Thank you Iowa!” the screen reads. “See you again September 3rd.”

Some folks believe this might be when Palin finally says what she’s going to do. “You can only tease so many times in the political process,” Rove said Sunday, “and I think she is getting to the end of that.” As I have been telling anyone who will listen, Palin will not run. Some of the reasons were outlined by The Fix this morning, making money hand over fist from her books, speeches and Fox News being chief among them, to my mind.

Most importantly, Palin won’t run because the level of accountability and scrutiny will intensify. Her penchant for put-downs and sarcasm won’t be enough to fend off her challengers in the GOP field or in the press or make up for her lack of policy depth. But if she proves naysayers like me wrong and actually gets in this thing, it’ll prove without a doubt that she is not as smart as I think she is.