Consider this item that appeared four years ago in the St. Petersburg Times blog of September 19, 2007, four months prior to the 2008 Republican Iowa caucus: “New poll results from American Research Group: Rudy Giuliani 26%, John McCain 18%, Fred Thompson 16%, Mitt Romney 14%.” And the Democratic picture? The poll indicated “Among likely Democratic voters: Hillary Clinton 47%, Barack Obama 19%, John Edwards 9%.” It’s too soon to place your bets. Unless you’ve got money to burn.