A Virginia Republican insider notes some interesting stats in a new Quinnipiac poll showing President Obama with a four point lead over Mitt Romney, 49 to 45 percent. For starters, the party identification is ludicrous (23 % Republican / 30 % Democrat / 40 % Independent). In 2009, Republicans were 37 percent of the electorate. In 2008, when Democratic turnout was huge, Republicans were still 33 percent of the electorate.

Among independent voters in Virginia: Gov. Bob McDonnell has a positive approval split of 52-29, with independents approving of his job by a 60 to 22 margin. Obama is upside-down with independents by 10 points although positive among likely voters.

McDonnell, who some thought was hurt by the controversy over sonogram legislation, has an approval rating among women of 45 to 31 percent.

Romney is leading among independents by 7 points over Obama and leads in double digits among these voters when it comes to the economy.

More Republicans than Democrats say they are enthusiastic to vote than in 2008. ( 41 to 33 percent).

The bottom line is that Obama is ahead if the electorate is even more Democratic in 2012 than in 2008. Since just about everyone thinks this is not going to happen, Romney is probably in strong shape in this critical swing state.