UP: Likelihood of a deal on immigration reform.

DOWN: Likelihood of an agreed upon budget by House and Senate.

House Budget Committee Chairman Rep. Paul Ryan, R-Wis. (Carolyn Kaster/Associated Press) House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) (Carolyn Kaster/Associated Press)

UP: Gay marriage goes back to the states.

DOWN: A sweeping Supreme Court ruling.

UP: New-found appreciation for Justice Anthony Kennedy.

DOWN: Taking the procedurally complex Prop. 8 case to the Supreme Court.

UP: Eclectic conservative pols.

DOWN: Old school social conservatives.

UP: Finding electable Republicans for the Senate seats vacated by retiring Dems.

DOWN: Getting the most dogmatic conservative to fumble away seats vacated by Dems.

UP: Across the board cuts.

DOWN: Sequester hysteria.

UP: Red state Dems playing defense.

DOWN: Sweeping anti-gun legislation.

UP:  America, the indispensable nation.

DOWN: Leading from behind.

UP: Missile defense.

DOWN: Engagement with Great Leaders in rogue nations.

UP: Concerns about Obamacare.

DOWN: Obamacare as an “historic” accomplishment.